Sunday, July 22, 2018

The Oscar Narrative: July Nomination Predictions - Best Original Screenplay

July Nomination Predictions
Adam McKay "Backseat"
Bo Burnham "Eighth Grade"
Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara "The Favourite"
Jonah Hill "Mid '90s"
Mike Leigh "Peterloo"

Other Contenders - Tamara Jenkins "Private Life", Caroline Thompson and Robert Zemeckis "Welcome to Marwen", Alfonso Cuaron "Roma", Asghar Farhadi "Everybody Knows", James Gray and Ethan Gross "Ad Astra", Paul Schrader "First Reformed", Chloe Zhao "The Rider", Ari Aster "Hereditary", Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Jason Schwartzman, and Kunichi Nomura "Isle of Dogs", Bryan Woods, Scott Beck, and John Krasinski "A Quiet Place", Phil Hay and Matt Manfredi "Destroyer", Daniel Stiepleman "On the Basis of Sex", Oja Kodar and Orson Welles "The Other Side of the Wind"

Commentary - Well, Wendy moves to 2019, taking a slot I had reserved for Benh Zeitlin. I also have moved out Private Life, as buzz has been mute. I still think A24 has another Lady Bird on its hands with Mid '90s, and that Mike Leigh and Adam McKay are popular enough with this branch to get in. Also, I think Backseat could end up being a huge Oscar contender across the board. That leaves two slots. I am not sure if Eighth Grade is going to be a bit awards contender, but if any branch is going to embrace the critical favorite, it is this one. Finally, while Yorgos Lanthimos is not writing the screenplay this time, word is out that The Favourite might be one to watch for in many races, especially this one. Beyond those five you have previous Oscar favorites Alfonso Cuaron, Robert Zemeckis, Asghar Farhadi and Wes Anderson. Some genre pieces like Ad Astra, Hereditary, and A Quiet Place are ones to watch for, as are On the Basis of Sex, First Reformed, The Rider, Destroyer, and Orson Welles unearthed The Other Side of the Wind.

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