I know a lot of people think Gabriel Byrne has a really good shot at the award, I think he only has a minor shot. I just feel his character on In Treatment doesn't have the baity-type scenes you see from a lot of the other nominees.
Michael C. Hall might one day win for his murderous Dexter, but his episode selection this year, means he will once again the bridesmaid, not the bride.
Jon Hamm doesn't have the showiest performance, or the most Emmy-esque scenes, but Mad Men is hugely popular, and will most likely win Drama Series again. Simple math could tell you, this means he has a really good shot at winning.
So then it comes down to two. To be honest, I can't pick one without thinking I should change my prediciton. So right now, I am going with last year's champ over the one in my heart I feel may finally win. Bryan Cranston over Hugh Laurie. But don't be surprised if it is reversed come Sunday night.