The Oscar Narrative: Pre-Guild Nomination Predictions - Best Picture and Best Director

Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

TAR

Top Gun: Maverick

Women Talking

Other Contenders - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Aftersun, Living, Triangle of Sadness, RRR, She Said, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Woman King, Till, The Whale, Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio, Decision to Leave

Commentary - A race that is shaping up with a few outliers. I feel pretty good about The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, TAR, and Top Gun Maverick. That leaves four slots. Despite missing a lot at the BAFTA longlists, I still think that the dominating headlines and the American side of things will get Avatar in. Women Talking is slipping a lot, and if it keeps missing in the guilds, I am moving it out. Babylon is getting mixed reactions, and its box office failures don't help. But so far it is holding on, and will do exceptionally well in the craft categories. Finally, I feel like All Quiet on the Western Front is going to be this year's foreign language nominee. Watch out for Black Panther, Aftersun, Living, Triangle of Sadness, RRR, She Said, Glass Onion, The Woman King, Till, Decision to Leave, The Whale, and GT's Pinocchio. 

Best Director

Edward Berger "All Quiet on the Western Front"

James Cameron "Avatar: The Way of Water"

The Daniels "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Steven Spielberg "The Fabelmans"

Todd Field "TAR"

Other Contenders - Martin McDonagh "The Banshees of Inisherin", Sarah Polley "Women Talking", Baz Luhrmann "Elvis", Ruben Ostlund "Triangle of Sadness", Joseph Kosinski "Top Gun: Maverick", Damien Chazelle "Babylon", Ryan Coogler "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever", Charlotte Wells "Aftersun", Gina Prince-Blythewood "The Woman King", Park Chan-wook "Decision to Leave", S.S. Rajamouli "RRR". Rian Johnson "Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery"

Commentary - A tough race that I don't think will be decided until the nominations are unveiled. The Daniels, Steven Spielberg, and Todd Field feel safe, and should get DGA Nods this week to back up their front runner status. James Cameron has been doubted all season, but I see directors pulling together to honor Cameron's achievement. Finally, I think the strong technical showing for All Quiet on the Western Front will lead to a nod for Edward Berger. Directors love these kind of big bold technical achievements and this definitely fits that mold. Martin McDonagh is on a lot of folks list, but I have a feeling he will suffer a similar fate to his Three Billboards year. There are just bigger bolder films in front of him. Sarah Polley is still a possibility but Women Talking has faltered. Baz Luhrmann could finally get nominated here if Elvis continues to overperform. Ruben Ostland, Rajamouli, or Chan-wook could take the Berger slot. Finally watch out for Kosinski, Wells, Coogler, Prince-Blythewood, Chazelle and Johnson. This race is far from over.