Austin Butler "Elvis"
Colin Farrell "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Brendan Fraser "The Whale"
Paul Mescal "Aftersun"
Bill Nighy "The Whale"
Other Contenders - Tom Cruise "Top Gun: Maverick", Hugh Jackman "The Son", Harris Dickinson "Triangle of Sadness", Tom Hanks "A Man Called Otto", Jeremy Pope "The Inspection", Daniel Kaluuya "Nope", Felix Kammerer "All Quiet on the Western Front", Gabriel LaBelle "The Fablemans", Diego Calva "Bardo", Daryl McCormack "Good Luck to You, Leo Grande", Daniel Craig "Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery", Ralph Fiennes "The Menu", Adam Driver "White Noise"
Commentary - This race is a lot less weak if Oscar voters are willing to consider some genre and indie contenders. It looks like voters are coalescing around six contenders. Butler, Farrell, and Fraser are in, and the Oscar is between those three. Bill Nighy has remained strong, and if he can pick up SAG this week, and BAFTA next week it will cement him in the fourth slot. In the final slot, I have left in Paul Mescal over the more populist choice of Tom Cruise. We have seen often where the populist choice misses out. But, if Top Gun is as popular as we think he is, he could easily take that last slot. Aftersun is also performing well, and may be the acting favorite. Hugh Jackman held on for awhile, but after Tuesday's Globes he has no other major nods so far. A SAG nod could change his fortunes. A Man Called Otto had some buzz, but poor reviews will mostly likely knock Tom Hanks out, who struggled to get nominated in recent years for good projects (although he is still a strong upset potential in Elvis). The Globes nominated Jeremy Pope, who is an intriguing entry this year. BAFTA longlists brought up some interesting names like Daniel Kaluuya, Harris Dickinson, Felix Fammerer, and Daryl McCormack. All are interesting inclusions. Finally, don't forget Globe nominees Driver, Fiennes, Calva, and Craig.
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