Paul Dano "The Fabelmans"
Brendan Gleeson "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Judd Hirsch "The Fabelmans"
Barry Keoghan "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Ke Huy Quan "Everything Everywhere All at Once"
Other Contenders - Brian Tyree Henry "Causeway", Ben Whishaw "Women Talking", Brad Pitt "Babylon", Tom Hanks "Elvis", Eddie Redmayne "The Good Nurse", Woody Harrelson "Triangle of Sadness", Seth Rogen "The Fabelmans"
Commentary - Can two guys from two movies get nominated? Probably not, but right now, this race really feels in flux. I know that Brendan Gleeson and Ke Huy Quan are leading the race, but the other three slots are up in the air. Barry Keoghan is racking up a lot of awards and feels like he is getting to the point of being solid. I'm not sure which of The Fabelmans guys will get in, so I put in both, but I am not sold on either. Brian Tyree Henry is on the rise, but his film overall is not doing well outside of his performance. Woody Harrelson and Seth Ogen are possibilities. Ben Whishaw was so high on the list, but so far has missed a lot. SAG and BAFTA though could bring him back. Finally, I think that this open race leaves the potential for Oscar winning favorites like Eddie Redmayne, Tom Hanks, and even more likely, Brad Pitt, to return based on name recognition alone.
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