Friday, January 6, 2023

The Oscar Narrative: Pre-Guild Nomination Predictions - Best Actress

Pre-Guild Nomination Predictions
Cate Blanchett "TAR"
Viola Davis "The Woman King"
Danielle Deadwyler "Till"
Michelle Williams "The Fabelmans"
Michelle Yeoh "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Other Contenders - Margot Robbie "Babylon", Ana De Arms "Blonde", Emma Thompson "Good Luck to You Leo Grande", Jennifer Lawrence "Causeway", Jessica Chastain "The Good Nurse", Naomi Ackie "I Wanna Dance with Somebody", Olivia Colman "Empire of Light", Rooney Mara "Women Talking", Zoe Kazan "She Said"

Commentary - Despite Deadwyler missing the Globes, I still have hope. This morning she made the BAFTA longlist cut and Margot Robbie did not. It does feel like the last slot is between those two, although SAG could change the game. Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh are locked in a battle. They will probably split the Globe, Blanchett will win Critics Choice, and SAG and BAFTA are toss-ups. It will be a race to the finish. Viola Davis has continued to be strong so far in the race, as has Michelle Williams. Ana De Armas as had a strong showing and made the BAFTA top ten today. Jessica Chastain, fresh off her Oscar win, has also remained strong despite her movie's muted response. Emma Thompson is continually surprising this season, Jennifer Lawrence returns, and I would not discount Colman, Ackie, Kazan, or Mara. 

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