The Oscar Narrative: Final Nomination Predictions - Best Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature

Best Animated Feature

Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

Marcel the Shell With Shoes On

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

The Sea Beast

Turning Red

Other Contenders - Minions: The Rise of Gru, My Father's Dragon, Inu-Oh, Apollo 10 1/2, Strange World, Lightyear, Wendell & Wild

Commentary - Four slots seemed locked. Pinocchio, Marcel, Puss in Boots, and Turning Red have hit all of the major precursors they need to make the cut. The last slot? Who knows? Inu-On got the Globe nod. Strange World may have faltered at the box office, but it was well liked, and Minions got the PGA. Lightyear did really well with some of the technical guilds. This helps its case. Then you have the Netflix trifecta of Apollo 10 1/2, Wendell & Wild, and The Sea Beast. At the Annie Awards, The Sea Beast did the best of the bunch, and had of lot of technical support below the line. Animators clearly love the film, and its production design. I think it surprises, and makes the cut. 

Best Documentary Feature

All That Breathes

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Descendant

Fire of Love

Navalny

Other Contenders - Moonage Daydream, The Territory, Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song, Retrograde, Bad Axe, Last Flight Home, A House Made of Splinters, The Janes, Hidden Letters, Children of the Mist

Commentary - A tough race to call, because you never know how these documentary voters are going to land. Fire of Love is a huge hit, Navalny is incredibly timely, Descendant has the Netflix backing and the Obamas, All that Breathes is probably the front runner, and I would be so disappointed if All the Beauty and the Bloodshed missed (plus it has done well across the board). But Moonage Daydream has a lot of support, The Territory has been widely seen, Bad Axe is popular, and Hallelujah surprised once when it made the longlists.

Best International Feature

All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)

Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)

Close (Belgium)

Decision to Leave (South Korea)

The Quiet Girl (Ireland)

Other Contenders - EO (Poland), Bardo (Mexico), Corsage (Austria), Saint Omer (France), Return to Seoul (Cambodia), Joyland (Pakistan), Last Film Show (India), Cairo Conspiracy (Sweden), The Blue Caftan (Morocco)

Commentary - The only real guarantee here is All Quiet on the Western Front, which is set to be a huge contender across the board, including a potential Best Picture nomination. Argentina, 1985's win at the Globes put it in the spotlight. Decision to Leave has been a huge hit so far this season, and The Quiet Girl's BAFTA nod puts it on the map. I am worried about Close, a great film, but I still have it making the cut. EO though feels like it should be in here, but critical groups and the Academy are different, and sometimes critical love doesn't always translate. Bardo is also strong, simply because of the Inarritu's name behind it. Saint Omer, Joyland, and Return to Seoul are critical favorites, and keep your eye out for Last Film Show.