The Oscar Narrative: Final Nomination Predictions - Best Picture and Best Director

Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

TAR

Top Gun: Maverick

The Whale

Other Contenders - Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking, RRR, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Woman King, Aftersun, Decision to Leave, Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

Commentary - So we know that The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, TAR, and Top Gun: Maverick are locked and loaded, with the most guild support across the board. I feel like All Quiet on the Western Front's technical and BAFTA support also makes it pretty solid right now. The Fabelmans and Avatar: The Way of Water feel a lot weaker than at the beginning of this process, and I have my concerns. But I feel like both have done enough to make the top ten. That leaves two slots, and I personally, have no idea. I am going with The Whale, which could get 4 other nods, and has the PGA nod, which was a surprise. Finally, I moved Babylon back in. It has hit a lot of guilds, and is the kind of film whose supporters are rabid, which really helps in the first round of voting. But I feel like Triangle of Sadness is strong. In a year of ten, I could see films like Glass Onion, The Woman King, RRR, and Black Panther (aka the bigger movies) squeezing in. Women Talking has faltered a lot, but again, with ten nods, am I crazy to leave it out? Also, indies like Aftersun, Decision to Leave, and GDT's Pinocchio cannot be discounted. 

Best Director

Edward Berger "All Quiet on the Western Front"

James Cameron "Avatar: The Way of Water"

The Daniels "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Steven Spielberg "The Fabelmans"

Todd Field "TAR"

Other Contenders - Joseph Kosinski "Top Gun: Maverick", James Cameron "Avatar: The Way of Water", Park Chan-wook "Decision to Leave", Gina Prince-Blythewood "The Woman King", Ruben Ostlund "Triangle of Sadness", Baz Luhrmann "Elvis", Damien Chazelle "Babylon", Sarah Polley "Women Talking"

Commentary - I have had the same five for awhile now. I feel like Berger will take the Academy's foreign language slot from Kosinski (whose inclusion at DGA showed a lot of strength for the film). But Kosinski's DGA Nod was a big deal, and someone else could be knocked out (I sense that McDonagh is vulnerable). James Cameron is someone not to bet against, and yet I am. He could steal a slot. Also, you cannot discount BAFTA nominees Chan-wook and Prince-Blythewood, or Chazelle, Luhrmann, Polley or Ostlund.