Sunday, January 22, 2023

The Oscar Narrative: Final Nomination Predictions - Best Adapted and Original Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay
Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, and Ian Stokell "All Quiet on the Western Front"
Kazuo Ishiguro "Living"
Rebecca Lenkiewicz "She Said"
Samuel D. Hunter "The Whale"
Sarah Polley "Women Talking"

Other Contenders - Rian Johnson "Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery", Peter Craig, Justin Marks, Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, and Christopher McQuarrie "Top Gun: Maverick", Guillermo del Toro, Matthew Robbins, Gris Grimly, and Patrick Hale "Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio", James Cameron, Rick Jaffa, and Amanda Silverman "Avatar: The Way of Water", Noah Baumbach "White Noise", Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert Cole "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever", Kogonada "After Yang"

Commentary - This race is oddly tough. Women Talking being snubbed at BAFTA was huge, but I feel like WGA is going to nominate it. Is it still the frontrunner? Will it even get nominated? I am still banking on a nomination, but a win? I am not as certain as a I used to be. Glass Onion seems to be faltering as well? Am I crazy to leave it out? Probably, But I am going with the BAFTA 4 (The Quiet Girl would be a real shocker with American voters), and subbing in Women Talking. Glass Onion, Gun, Pinocchio, Avatar, and After Yang are still possibilities in what has become one of the biggest question mark races of this awards season. 

Best Original Screenplay
Martin McDonagh "The Banshees of Inisherin"
The Daniels "Everything Everywhere All at Once"
Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner "The Fabelmans"
Todd Field "TAR"
Ruben Ostlund "Triangle of Sadness"

Other Contenders - Charlotte Wells "Aftersun", Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell, Craig Pearce, and Jeremy Doner "Elvis", Damien Chazelle "Babylon", Seth Reiss and Will Tracy "The Menu"

Commentary - I have been banking on this five for awhile now and after Aftersun didn't get a BAFTA nod, I feel even better about my picks. Aftersun could still get in, and don't discount BP contenders Elvis and Babylon, and even The Menu, which is certainly original. 

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