The Oscar Narrative: Final Nomination Predictions - Best Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress

Best Actor

Austin Butler "Elvis"

Colin Farrell "The Banshees of Inisherin"

Brendan Fraser "The Whale"

Paul Mescal "Aftersun"

Bill Nighy "Living"

Other Contenders - Tom Cruise "Top Gun: Maverick", Tom Hanks "A Man Called Otto", Felix Kammerer "All Quiet on the Western Front", Diego Calva "Babylon", Adam Sandler "Hustle", Jeremy Pope "The Inspection", Gabriel LaBelle "The Fabelmans"

Commentary - 4 slots are a given. We know that Butler, Farrell, Fraser, and Nighy are locked, and the Oscar will come down to one of them. That fifth slot? A doozy. I am going with the BAFTA fifth of Paul Mescal, which I have been predicting for a while. I don't necessarily feel super confident, because Aftersun doesn't feel as strong as I thought it would. Adam Sandler could follow up his SAG nod with an Oscar nod that should have come for Uncut Gems (sometimes that happens). Tom Cruise could ride his film's success (and would show strength), and Tom Hanks could surprise for a loveable grump role that older audiences are indulging in. Also watch out for Pope, LaBelle, Kammerer, and Calva. 

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett "TAR"

Viola Davis "The Woman King"

Ana De Armas "Blonde"

Danielle Deadwyler "Till"

Michelle Yeoh "Everything Everywhere All At Once"

Other Contenders - Michelle Williams "The Fabelmans", Margot Robbie "Babylon", Andrea Riseborough "To Leslie"

Commentary - Again, four slots feel locked. Blanchett, Davis, Deadwyler, and Yeoh have hit enough major precursors. For months I had Michelle Williams. But after SAG and BAFTA snubs, I can officially say it was a huge mistake to switch her to lead. In both cases Ana De Armas replaced her. I think Blonde was awful (she was great, and is great in general), but voters seem to be looking passed that fact. Also watch out for Margot Robbie, and the stealth campaign longshot of Andrea Riseborough. 

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Dano "The Fabelmans"

Brendan Gleeson "The Banshees of Inisherin"

Barry Keoghan "The Banshees of Inisherin" 

Ke Huy Quan "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Eddie Redmayne "The Good Nurse"

Other Contenders - Judd Hirsch "The Fabelmans", Brad Pitt "Babylon", Brian Tyree Henry "Causeway", Tom Hanks "Elvis", Ben Whishaw "Women Talking"

Commentary - Three Guys, Quan, Gleeson, and Keoghan feel locked. Redmayne has hit all the right notes. But does anyone else feel like its one of those nods that just doesn't happen? I am predicting him, because the stats tell me I'm a fool not to. But I have a hunch he could miss. Paul Dano got the SAG, and the BAFTA nods instead don't feel like they will cross over. But Judd Hirsch, Brad Pitt, Brian Tyree Henry, Tom Hanks, and Ben Whishaw are waiting to pounce on an uncertain race. 

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever"

Hong Chau "The Whale"

Kerry Condon "The Banshees of Inisherin"

Jamie Lee Curtis "Everything Everywhere All At Once"

Stephanie Hsu "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Other Contenders - Dolly De Leon "Triangle of Sadness", Janelle Monae "Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery", Jessie Buckley "Women Talking", Claire Foy "Women Talking"

Commentary - Again, four contenders have hit the marks. Bassett, Chau, Condon, and Curtis seem locked. SAG went for Hsu and BAFTA went for De Leon. It really is a toss up. I think the power of EEAAO will win out, and maybe that is just me being hopeful. Beyond those six, the rest of the potentials have stumbled. But don't be surprised to names like Monae, Buckley and Foy surprise.