2017 Nomination Predictions
Louie Anderson "Baskets"
Alec Baldwin "Saturday Night Live"
Andre Braugher "Brooklyn Nine-Nine"
Tituss Burgess "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt"
Tony Hale "Veep"
Matt Walsh "Veep"
Other Contenders - Ty Burrell "Modern Family", Bryan Tyree Henry "Atlanta", Timothy Simons "Veep", Laurence Fishburne "black-ish", Lakeith Stanfield "Atlanta", Adam Driver "Girls", Andrew Rannells "Girls", Micah Fowler "Speech-less", Eric Stonestreet "Modern Family", Ed O'Neill "Modern Family", Jesse Tyler Ferguson "Modern Family", T.J. Miller "Silicon Valley", Zach Woods "Silicon Valley", Kumail Nanjiani "Silicon Valley", Martin Sheen "Grace and Frankie", Sam Waterston "Grace and Frankie", Bobby Cannavale "Master of None", Tracey Letts "Divorce", Deon Cole "black-ish"
Commentary - I think this is the year that Modern Family falls out completely, which means Ty Burrell finally misses out. It happens with shows, even some of the big ones like Frasier finally missed out on nominations in its later years. That leaves one slots, one for Burrell, and one for Keegan Michael Key, whose show ended, and one for the seventh guy who got in last year. I think that the other guys get in again. Tituss Burgess, Louie Anderson, and Tony Hale are locks. Matt Walsh should be replaced by Timothy Simons this season, but once they like you, it takes them a while to drop you, and Veep had yet another great season. Andre Braugher has been on the fence for years now, but he is one of those guys that you don't bet against, plus he deserves every nomination he gets for Brooklyn Nine-Nine. That last slot is going to Alec Baldwin. He is an Emmy favorite, and has been one of the big reasons to watch SNL this season. It would be an anomaly, as he would be the first non-regular cast member to get into one of these supporting categories. But his role was so big and so important to the cultural zeitgeist, I don't think it matters that it is unusual. Beyond those six, I would watch for Burrell, newcomers Bryan Tyree Henry and Lakeith Stanfield from Atlanta, the rest of the Modern Family guys, and the crew from Silicon Valley. Laurence Fishburne could ride a black-ish wave, the aforementioned Timothy Simons had a fantastic season, Micah Fowler is a breakout, and Bobby Cannavale is always a favorite. Finally, look for the two guys from Girls, who both had great final seasons, and the legendary duo from Grace and Frankie, particularly Martin Sheen who had an Emmy-worthy story line this season.