Best Rock Video
Will Win - Hozier "Take Me to Church"
Should Win - Florence and the Machine "Ship to Wreck"
Could Win - Florence and the Machine "Ship to Wreck" or Fall Out Boy "Uma Thurman"
Commentary - I love what Florence and the Machine have done this year, their music, and their videos continue to be at the top of their game, and they are certainly in this tight and interesting three-way race. Fall Out Boy returned this year with a well-received album, and a pretty catchy video with Uma Thurman. But I think both may have to take a backseat to a young upstart in Hozier. He snagged a huge Song of the Year nomination at the Grammys last year, and his album is in play this year, and could continue the streak. Take Me To Church was everywhere this year, he is a creative and well-liked new artist, and I think he is going to win the VMA this year.
Will Win - Taylor Swift feat. Kendrick Lamar "Bad Blood"
Should Win - Mark Ronson feat. Bruno Mars "Uptown Funk"
Could Win - Mark Ronson feat. Bruno Mars "Uptown Funk"
Commentary - This particular race could go one of two ways. These two videos are probably the top two for Video of the Year. Either they use this race as a precursor to the big one or as a consolation prize. I personally think it is going to be the former, because I think Uptown Funk still has several categories where it can win (Male Video and Pop Video look like good options). I think that Swift and Lamar, two of the biggest names in music this summer, will easily win this award, and probably the big one as well.
Best Video with a Social Message
Will Win - Rihanna "American Oxygen"
Should Win - Jennifer Hudson "I Still Love You"
Could Win - Jennifer Hudson "I Still Love You" or Big Sean feat. Kanye West and John Legend "One Man Can Change the World"
Commentary - I feel like Rihanna is not going to go away empty handed, and I am kind of surprised that FourFiveSeconds was nominated (I know its a minimalist video, but it has mega star power). But Jennifer Hudson's is the most powerful, and speaking of star power, Big Sean, Kanye, and John Legend all teaming up is a tempting combination. But I think Rihanna's personal popularity, and the message of the song itself, will carry her through.