Will Win - David Oyelowo "Nightingale"
Could Win - Richard Jenkins "Olive Kitteridge" or Mark Rylance "Wolf Hall"
Should Win - Richard Jenkins "Olive Kitteridge"
Commentary - When Olive Kitteridge appeared, I thought to myself: "McDormand and Jenkins are winning Emmys". Richard Jenkins has been a hardworking actor in Hollywood for decades, and his Oscar nomination a few years ago for The Visitor is still one of my favorite nods in recent history. He didn't have a shot in hell at winning, but it was a nice honor for a guy who has gone a long time without any. Olive Kitteridge seems like the Frances McDormand show, and in many ways it is. But Richard Jenkins is remarkable to watch as well, is a perfect balance for Olive's thorniness, and without him, the tone and the story simply not have worked. But there are two guys in this race that I think can beat him, and one is in the lead. But first let's start with my third place guy Mark Rylance. In the theater community, Mark Rylance is one of our finest actors, and this year between Wolf Hall and the upcoming Bridge of Spies, he is getting his first breakthrough roles on television and film. He was commanding in Wolf Hall, and I think a lot of voters are going to throw their support behind him and the project. Alas though, my pick is David Oyelowo. Nightingale gives Oyelowo 80 minutes alone in a hotel room to do his thing. He is fantastic in the role, commands the screen, and doesn't have to share screen time with the plethora of co-stars that Jenkins and Rylance do. He has two other things going for him as well. He was the star of Selma, and his Oscar snub is still riling people up, and he has several big projects on the horizon and is set to become a genuine star. Plus, this is a role meant for the Emmys. Rylance is commanding as well, which helps, but Jenkins is too subtle. The actors like acting, they like big and bold, and nobody was bolder than Oyelowo this year. I think he wins an Emmy and proves it.