2013 Grammy Award Predictions: Visual Media Categories

Best Visual Media Compilation
Will Win - Marley
Should Win - The Muppets
Could Win - Midnight in Paris
Commentary - I think that this award is between the old-school sound of Midnight in Paris, and the Caribbean tunes of the doc Marley. While it could go either way, I am leaning more towards the newer and more progessive sounds of Marley.

Best Visual Media Score
Will Win/Should Win - Ludovic Bource "The Artist"
Could Win -  Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo"
Commentary - With their roots in popular music, Atticus Ross and Trent Reznor, could be a popular vote for the recording industry. But anyone who saw The Artist knows that its score has as much to do with its success as any other element of the film. I expect it to repeat its Oscar victory here.

Best Visual Media Score
Will Win - Taylor Swift and The Civil Wars "Safe and Sound" from "The Hunger Games"
Should Win - Bret McKenzie "Man or Muppet" from "The Muppets"
Could Win - McKenzie, Abraham's Daughter, or Learn Me Right
Commentary - With so many names worth mentioning in this category, it is very much a toss up. I would personally go for the Oscar winner Man or Muppet, but I feel that when two Grammy favorites team up on a song, it is probably hard to miss for voters checking off their ballots. So the names of The Civil Wars and Taylor Swift on a song together will be hard to pass up.

2013 Grammy Award Predictions: Best Short Form Video

Will Win/Should Win - Jay-Z and Kanye West "No Church In the Wild"

Could Win - Rihanna "We Found Love" or Foster the People "Houdini"

Commentary - We Found Love is an upbeat and romantic video that kind of juxtaposes its club beat with more realistic images. No Church in the Wild is a dark and violent video that may turn some people off, but is also really well done. I am going with The Throne, because I think it is more technical, and more artistic. Although even Foster the People's Houdini could slip in as a wild card and beat both.

2013 Grammy Award Predictions: Best Spoken Word and Comedy Album

Best Spoken Word Album
Will Win/Should Win - Michelle Obama "American Grown"

Could Win - Bill Clinton "Back to Work: Why We Need Smart Government"

Commentary - This is one of the most stacked races at the Grammys, although it is also one which most people ignore. Clinton has already won a Grammy, and the continuing popularity of awarding political figures will probably continue when they award the lovely reading of American Grown by the First Lady Michelle Obama. But honestly, even Maddow, Degeneres, and Ian could win, as all are popular, and actually do a great job with their audiobooks.

Best Comedy Album
Will Win - Tenacious D "Rise of Fenix"

Should Win - Kathy Griffin "Seaman 1st Class"

Could Win - Margaret Cho "Cho Dependent" or Jimmy Fallon "Blow Your Pants Off"

Commentary - This history of this award is varied and sometimes unpredictable, compared to its Spoken Word counterpart. If it were my vote, it would go to Kathy Griffin who has shamelessly and hilariously been seeking a Grammy for some years now. But I think this is between Cho, Fallon, and my pick Tenacious D, which seems to have the most buzz, and may be the better fit for Recording Academy voters.

2013 Grammy Award Predictions: Best Musical Theater Album

Starting this afternoon, and every day up until the big night, I will make my final predictions for this year's Grammy Awards. Today, we start off the countdown with Best Musical Theater Album.

Will Win/Should Win - Once

Could Win - The Gershwin's Porgy and Bess or Newsies

Commentary - After winning a stunning eight Tony Awards in May, Once The Musical, based on the Oscar-winning film, staked its claim in the awards race as the best new musical. The songs still rings true, and while both Porgy and Bess and Newsies are great musicals with a lot of support, I suspect that Once will continue its winnings streak.

State of the Oscar Race: Argo All the Way?

Over the next couple of weeks, as the big night approaches, the question that will be on most people's minds is this: Can Argo overcome the key director snub to still win Best Picture? This has been the question since the nominations were announced on January 10th, but after this weekend, the plausibility of that happening has increased ten-fold. Winning the PGA was predicted. Argo is the story of how Hollywood producers helped the CIA save American lives. But Argo beating out the more acting-friendly choices of Les Miserables, Lincoln, and particularly Silver Linings Playbook for SAG Ensemble is a show of real strength on its part. But the overwhelming narrative of Argo's successes is always stopped short by one key factor: That prickly Best Director snub. When most people try to find a year where a director snub led to Best Picture, they go directly to Driving Miss Daisy in 1989. No nod for Bruce Beresford, and it still won the PGA, and eventually the Oscar. But I am starting to wonder if 1995's Oscar race is not more apt. Apollo 13 and Argo's similarities are striking. Both were popular frontrunners going into nominations. Both of its directors were popular actors turned directors, both snubbed by the Academy. Apollo 13 won the PGA, won the SAG, and even won the DGA despite Howard's Academy miss. Then at Oscar night, the big historical epic Braveheart swooped in a beat it out, Apollo 13 only taking home two awards at night's end. Now I know that Braveheart is no Lincoln, and with the date change for nominations, 2012 is no 1995. But the similarities are striking. We will have to see what happens at the DGA, although with its momentum, I think Affleck is probably the frontrunner. The WGA and BAFTA will also play a role. For the record, Apollo 13 did not win the WGA, and was not as heavily favored by BAFTA (only technical nods), as Argo, another notch up for the film. But if I were the Argo team, I would still be cautious. Maybe it was a fluke of the date change, or the pretentious director's branch snubbing the populist film. Or maybe, just maybe, despite the guild support, the snub represents a strong, silent undercurrent of lack of support that will cause some surprises come Oscar night.

In terms of the acting awards, the SAG voters only confirmed the frontrunners for the Oscars. At this point, I think that Daniel Day-Lewis and Anne Hathaway are pretty much locks. The last stop to Oscar is BAFTA, and both come from popular films, and will probably repeat there as well. But I hestitate to make the same claims about Tommy Lee Jones and Jennifer Lawrence. In terms of Supporting Actor, I still think that Hoffman (BFCA Winner), Waltz (Golden Globe Winner), and to a lesser extent Robert DeNiro, are possibilities. Once again, I think BAFTA will be an important indicator. Jones confirmed his front-runner status last night. But with all of those previous winners in the category, I think that there could still easily be a surprise. In terms of Best Actress, Jennifer Lawrence had a big win last night, and it should not be discounted by any means. But, I expected (as did most people) Silver Linings Playbook to do a lot better. The fact that it lost Ensemble, despite clearly being an actor's favorite, is striking. It doesn't mean that Lawrence can't win, or won't win, it just means that the film may not be as powerful as once thought. And Chastain's likeability, Riva's legendary status, Watt's emotional turn, and Wallis' precosciousness, are all factors that should not be discounted. Once again, BAFTA will end up playing an important role. Of the two big Best Actress surprises in recent years, Marion Cotillard over Julie Christie, and Meryl Streep over Viola Davis, the BAFTA ended up being a better indicator than SAG. And this year, it is well-known that while they liked components of SLP, it was clearly not their favorite movie. If Lawrence can win there, then the Oscar is in the bag. But if Chastain or Riva's name gets called, tehn this race is far from over.

Of the big races, that leaves now the one that has the most mystery surrounding it: Best Director. If Ang Lee or Steven Spielberg wins the DGA, then I think we have a frontrunner. But if things go the way I think they will, then Affleck will win, leaving this category in flux. As the season goes on, I am leaning more and more towards Ang Lee. Spielberg is great, but Lincoln benefitted from the best script of the year, and a powerhouse team of actors. Life of Pi, which has a stunning 11 nominations, can almost all be attributed to the vision and talent of Ang Lee. There may also be some good will left over after the Brokeback Mountain snub. But really Lee is as good of a guess as Spielberg, or any of the others. And there is a good chance, that we head into Oscar night with not even the slightest idea who is out in front.

This was a whirlwind weekend, and we still have the DGA this weekend, and BAFTA the next. But at this moment it seems like it is Argo all the way. But beware the Oscar gods, because if this year has proven anything, is that we have no idea what is coming next.

19th Annual Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Award Winners

Film
Best Cast - Argo
Best Actor - Daniel Day-Lewis "Lincoln"
Best Actress - Jennifer Lawrence "Silver Linings Playbook"
Best Supporting Actor - Tommy Lee Jones "Lincoln"
Best Supporting Actress - Anne Hathaway "Les Miserables"
Best Stunt Ensemble - Skyfall

Television
Best Ensemble of a Drama Series - Downton Abbey
Best Ensemble of a Comedy Series - Modern Family
Best Actor in a Drama Series - Bryan Cranston "Breaking Bad"
Best Actress in a Drama Series - Claire Danes "Homeland"
Best Actor in a Comedy Series - Alec Baldwin "30 Rock"
Best Actress in a Comedy Series - Tina Fey "30 Rock"
Best Actor in a TV Movie/Miniseries - Kevin Costner "Hatfields & McCoys"
Best Actress in a TV Movie/Miniseries - Julianne Moore "Game Change"
Best Stunt Ensemble - Game of Thrones

SAG Predictions: Best Ensemble

Will Win - Silver Linings Playbook

Could Win - Lincoln, Les Miserables, or Argo

Should Win - Lincoln

Commentary - I think that Lincoln is one of the deepest and most complete casts of any film in recent memory. And it wasn't just Daniel Day-Lewis, Tommy Lee Jones, and Sally Field that knocked it out of the park. There were a whole host of talented character actors including James Spader, Gloria Reuben, Walton Goggins, S. Epatha Merkerson, Lee Pace, Jackie Earle Haley, John Hawkes, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Hal Holbrook, David Strathairn, Tim Blake Nelson, Dane DeHaan, and countless others that made their limited screentime worth our time. And while Les Miserables has plenty of detractors, most agree that its cast was spectacular. But for my money, the actors favorite movie appears to be Silver Linings Playbook. It got four acting Oscar nominations, and did unexpectedly well across the board. I don't think it will win Best Picture (if it was going to pull an upset, it would have happened last night), but I don't think it walks away from this award's season empty handed. The one film I am now really watching for to upset the big three in this category is Argo. If the PGA wasn't a fluke, it could continue its run to Oscar with a surprise win tonight.

Producer's Guild of America (PGA) Award Winners

I will be updating the winner's live:

Best Picture - Argo
Best Documentary Feature - Searching for Sugar Man
Best Animated Feature - Wreck-It Ralph
Best Drama Series - Homeland
Best Comedy Series - Modern Family
Best Longform Television - Game Change
Best Live Talk Show - The Colbert Report
Best Reality Competition Show - The Amazing Race
Best Nonfiction Television Series - American Masters

Best Children's Programming - Sesame Street

Best Sports Programming -  Real Sports with Bryant Gumbel

Best Digital Series -  30 Rock Webisodes

2013 Sundance Film Festival Awards

I will be updating the winners as they come in.

Grand Jury Prize, Dramatic
"Fruitvale," directed by Ryan Coogler

Grand Jury Prize, Documentary
"Blood Brother," directed by Steve Hoover

World Cinema Jury Prize, Dramatic
"Jiseul," directed by Muel O

World Cinema Jury Prize, Documentary
"A River Changes Course," directed Kalyanee Mam

Dramatic Audience Award
"Fruitvale," directed by Ryan Coogler

Documentary Audience Award
"Blood Brother," directed by Steve Hoover

World Cinema Dramatic Audience Award
"Metro Manila," directed by Sean Ellis

World Cinema Documentary Audience Award
"The Square"

The Best of NEXT Audience Award
"This Is Martin Bonner," directed by Chad Hartigan

Directing Award, Dramatic
Jill Solloway, "Afternoon Delight"

Directing Award, Documentary
Zachary Heinzerling, "Cutie and the Boxer"

World Cinema Directing Award, Dramatic
Sebastián Silva, "Crystal Fairy"

World Cinema Directing Award, Documentary
Tinatin Gurchiani, "The Machine Which Makes Everything Disappear"

Waldo Scott Screenwriting Award:
Lake Bell, "In a World"

World Cinema Screenwriting Award
Barmak Akram, "Wajma (An Afghan Love Story)"

Documentary Editing Award
Matthew Hamachek, "Gideon's Army"

World Cinema Documentary Editing Award
Ben Stark, "The Summit"

Excellence in Cinematography Award, Dramatic
Bradford Young, "Ain't Them Bodies Saints" and "Mother of George"

Excellence in Cinematography Award, Documentary
Richard Rowley, "Dirty Wars"

World Cinema Cinematography Award, Dramatic:
Michal Englert, Lasting

World Cinema Cinematography Award, Documentary
Marc Silver & Pau Esteve Birba, "Who Is Dayani Cristal?"

Special Jury Prize: Dramatic (Acting)
Miles Teller & Shailene Woodley, "The Spectacular Now"

Special Jury Prizes: Documentary
"Inequality For All," directed by Jacob Kornbluth
"American Promise" directed by Joe Brewster & Michèle Stephenson

World Cinema Special Jury Prize: Documentary
"Pussy Riot: A Punk Prayer," directed by Mike Lerner & Maxim Pozdorovkin

World Cinema Special Jury Prize: Dramatic
"Circus" directed by Srdan Golubovic

Alfred P. Sloan Prize
"Computer Chess," directed by Andrew Bujalsi

The Short Film Audience Award
"Catnip: Egress to Oblivion," directed by Jason Willis

The Short Film Grand Jury Prize
"The Whistle," directed by Grzegorz Zariczny

The Short Film Jury Award: U.S. Fiction
"Whiplash," directed by Damien Chazelle

The Short Film Jury Award: International Fiction
"The Date," directed by Jenni Toivoniemi

The Short Film Jury Award: Non-fiction
Skinningrove, directed by Michael Almereyda

The Short Film Jury Award: Animation
Irish Folk Furniture, directed by Tony Donoghue

A Short Film Special Jury Award for Acting
Joel Naglein in "Palimpsest"

A Short Film Special Jury Award
Until the Quiet Comes, directed by Kahlil Joseph

New Oscar Poll in Sidebar

This week, make your picks for Best Supporting Actor and Actress, which will become more clear after tomorrow's SAG Awards! Also, look forward this week to the beginning of Grammy winner predictions, as well as the DGA and ADG awards and the Super Bowl (which has nothing to do with this site but is fun either way. Go Ravens!)

The 14th Annual Golden Tomato Awards

Rotten Tomatoes is a site that most of us cinephiles visit several times a week (hell several times a day). For the last 14 years, the site has used its scoring system to present the best in each genre. Here are the winners of this year's awards:

Wide Release
1. Argo
2. Looper
3. Marvel's The Avengers
4. Skyfall
5. Moonrise Kingdom
6. The Cabin in the Woods
7. The Sessions
8. The Secret of Arriety
9. The Dark Knight Rises
10. Lincoln

Limited Release
1. This is Not a Film
2. The Invisible War
3. How to Survive a Plague
4. Jiro Dreams of Sushi
5. Monsieur Lazhar
6. Oslo, August 31st
7. The Imposter
8. The Island President
9. Brooklyn Castle
10. The Kid With a Bike

User
1. Marvel's The Avengers
2. Django Unchained
3. Argo
4. The Perks of Being a Wallflower
5. The Dark Knight Rises
6. Silver Linings Playbook
7. Wreck-It Ralph
8. Skyfall
9. Moonrise Kingdom
10. Life of Pi

Action-Adventure
1. Skyfall
2. Life of Pi
3. Django Unchained
4. Haywire
5. Premium Rush

Animation
1. The Secret World of Arriety
2. Frankenweenie
3. Wreck-It Ralph
4. ParaNorman
5. The Pirates! Band of Misfits

Comedy
1. Bernie
2. 21 Jump Street
3. Sleepwalk With Me
4. Seven Psychopaths
5. Your Sister's Sister

Comic Book
1. Marvel's The Avengers
2. The Dark Knight Rises
3. The Amazing Spider-Man
4. Dredd
5. Men in Black III

Documentary
1. The Invisible War
2. How to Survive a Plague
3. The Imposter
4. The Island President
5. The Brooklyn Castle

Drama
1. Coriolanus
2. Lincoln
3. The Master
4. Beasts of the Southern Wild
5. End of Watch

Foreign
1. This is Not a Film
2. Jiro Dreams of Sushi
3. Monsieur Lazahar
4. Oslo, August 31st
5. The Kid With a Bike

Horror
1. The Cabin in the Woods
2. The Loved Ones
3. The Innkeepers
4. The Bay
5. Kill List

Romance
1. Moonrise Kingdom
2. The Sessions
3. Silver Linings Playbook
4. Keep the Lights On
5. Hope Springs

Sci-Fi/Fantasy
1. Looper
2. Safety Not Guaranteed
3. The Hunger Games
4. Chronicle
5. Robot & Frank

Thriller
1. Argo
2. Zero Dark Thirty
3. Compliance
4. Arbitrage
5. The Grey

Producer's Guild of America (PGA) Predictions

Best Picture - Argo

Best Animated Feature - Wreck-It Ralph

Best Documentary Feature - Searching for Sugar Man

Best Drama Series - Homeland

Best Comedy Series - Modern Family

Best Television Movie/Miniseries - Game Change

Best Reality Series - Deadliest Catch

Best Variety Series - The Colbert Report

Best Reality-Competition Series - The Amazing Race

2013 Cesar Award Nominees

Cesar Awards are France's answer to the Oscars and BAFTAs. Expect Amour to clean up, and also notice that the only American film to be nominated for Foreign Film was Argo, further expanding its base of support. There are not a tremendous amout of French Academy members, but in this crazy year, every vote counts.

Best Picture
Farewell, My Queen
Amour
Camille Redouble
In The House
Rust & Bone
Holy Motors
What’s In A Name

Best Director
Benoît Jacquot, Farewell, My Queen
Michael Haneke, Amour
Noémie Lvovsky, Camille Redouble
François Ozon, In The House
Jacques Audiard, Rust & Bone
Leos Carax, Holy Motors
Stéphane Brizé, Quelques Heures De Printemps

Best Actress
Catherine Frot, Les Sauveurs Du Palais
Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
Noémie Lvovsky, Camille Redouble
Corinne Masiero, Louise Wimmer
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Léa Seydoux, Farewell, My Queen
Hélène Vincent, Quelques Heures De Printemps

Best Actor
Jean-Pierre Bacri, Cherchez Hortense
Patrick Bruel, What’s In A Name
Denis Lavant, Holy Motors
Vincent Lindon, Quelques Heures De Printemps
Fabrice Luchini, In The House
Jérémie Rénier, Cloclo
Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour

Best Supporting Actress
Valérie Benguigui, What’s In A Name
Judith Chemla, Camille Redouble
Isabelle Huppert, Amour
Yolande Moreau, Camille Redouble
Edith Scob, Holy Motors

Best Supporting Actor
Samir Guesmi, Camille Redouble
Michel Vuillermoz, Camille Redouble
Benoit Magimel, Cloclo
Claude Rich, Cherchez Hortense
Guillaume de Tonquedec, What’s In A Name

Newcomer (Female)
Alice de Lencquesaing, Au Galop
Lola Dewaere, Mince Alors!
Julia Faure, Camille Redouble
India Hair, Camille Redouble
Izia Higelin, Mauvaise Fille

Newcomer (Male)
Félix Moati, Télé Gaucho
Kacey Mottet Klein, Sister
Pierre Niney, Comme Des Frères
Matthias Schoenaerts, Rust & Bone
Ernst Umhauer, In The House

Best Original Screenplay
Bruno Podalydès, Denis Podalydès, Adieu Berthe – L’Enterrement De Mémé
Michael Haneke, Amour
Noémie Lvovsky, Maud Ameline, Pierre-Olivier Mattei, Florence Seyvos, Camille Redouble
Leos Carax, Holy Motors
Florence Vignon, Stéphane Brizé, Quelques Heures De Printemps

Best Adapted Screenplay
Lucas Belvaux, 38 Witnesses
Gilles Taurand, Benoît Jacquot, Farewell, My Queen
François Ozon, In The House
Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain, Rust & Bone
Matthieu Delaporte, Alexandre de la Patellière, What’s In A Name

Best Costumes
Christian Gasc, Farewell, My Queen
Pascale Chavanne, Augustine
Madeline Fontaine, Camille Redouble
Mimi Lempicka, Cloclo
Charlotte David, Populaire

Best Art Direction
Katia Wyszkop, Farewell, My Queen
Jean-Vincent Puzos, Amour
Philippe Chiffre, Cloclo
Florian Sanson, Holy Motors
Sylvie Olivé, Populaire

Best Animated Film
Edmond Etait Un Ane, Franck Dion
Ernest Et Célestine, Benjamin Renner, Vincent Patar, Stéphane Aubier
Kirikou Et Les Hommes Et Les Femmes, Michele Ocelot
Oh Willy, Emma De Swaef, Marc Roels
Zarafa, Rémi Besançon, Jean-Christophe Lie

Best First Film
Augustine, Alice Winocour
Comme Des Frères, Hugo Gélin
Louise Wimmer, Cyril Mennegun
Populaire, Régis Rosnard
Rengaine, Rachid Djaidani

Best Documentary
Bovines Ou La Vraie Vie Des Vaches, Emmanuel Gras
Duch, Le Maître Des Forges De L’Enfer, Rithy Panh
Les Invisibles, Sébastien Lifshitz
Journal De France, Claudine Nougaret, Raymond Depardon
Les Nouveaux Chiens De Garde, Gilles Balbastre, Yannick Kergoat

Best Original Score
Bruno Coulais, Farewell, My Queen
Gaëtan Roussel, Joseph Dahan, Camille Redouble
Philippe Rombi, In The House
Alexandre Desplat, Rust & Bone
Rob, Emmanuel D’Orlando, Populaire

Best Short Film
Ce N’est Pas Un Film De Cow-Boys, Benjamin Parent
Ce Qu’il Restera De Nous, Vincent Macaigne
Le Cri Du Homard, Nicolas Guiot
Les Meutes, Manuel Schapira
La Vie Parisienne, Viencent Dietschy

Best Cinematography
Romain Winding, Farewell, My Queen
Darius Khondji, Amour
Stéphane Fontaine, Rust & Bone
Caroline Champetier, Holy Motors
Guillaume Schiffman, Populaire

Best Editing
Luc Barnier, Farewell, My Queen
Monika Willi, Amour
Annette Dutertre, Michel Klochendler, Camille Redouble
Juliette Welfling, Rust & Bone
Nelly Quettier, Holy Motors

Best Sound
Brigitte Tallandier, Fançis Wargnier, Olivier Goinard, Farewell, My Queen
Guillaume Sciama, Nadine Muse, Jean-Pierre Laforce, Amour
Antoine Deflandre, Germaine Boulay, Eric Tisserand, Cloclo
Brigitte Tallandier, Pascal Villard, Jean-Paul Hurier, Rust & Bone
Erwan Kerzanet, Josefa Rodriguez, Emmanuel Croset, Holy Motors

Best Foreign Film
Argo
Bullhead
Laurence Anyways
Oslo, 31 August
The Angels’ Share
A Royal Affair
A Perdre La Raison

SAG Predictions: Best Actor

Will Win/Should Win - Daniel Day-Lewis "Lincoln"

Could Win - Bradley Cooper "Silver Linings Playbook" or Hugh Jackman "Les Miserables"
Commentary - Bradley Cooper is in the actors' favorite movie this year, and Hugh Jackman's supporters are definitely the loudest and most passionate. But if anyone other than Daniel Day-Lewis wins I will be shocked. He not only is the best, but probably the most unstoppable of any frontrunners.

 

SAG Predictions: Best Actress

Will Win - Jennifer Lawrence "Silver Linings Playbook"

Could Win/Should Win - Jessica Chastain "Zero Dark Thirty"

Commentary - At the Oscars, the emotional power of Emmanuelle Riva and Quvenzhane Wallis make it a four way race. But here at the SAG Awards, it is between Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain. Lawrence is in the actor's favorite movie Silver Linings Playbook. But Chastain, while she doesn't have much emotional background to her character, dives into the dense script and has the most difficult job of any of the nominees, and nails it. That being said, voters vote with their heart not their minds, so expect Lawrence to take the gold.

 

SAG Predictions: Best Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win - Robert DeNiro "Silver Linings Playbook"
Could Win/Should Win - Tommy Lee Jones "Lincoln"

Commentary - This award could be an early indicator of how the rest of the night will go for either Lincoln or Silver Linings Playbook. Tommy Lee Jones should be the frontrunner, as he won the most critical awards of any of the five, but his attitude at the last couple of awards ceremonies may really be a turnoff for voters. Also, with Day-Lewis in Actor, there may not be enough coattails to reach down. Robert DeNiro has never had a solo SAG nomination, and the actors clearly love SLP. I think that this may be too much for them to pass up. Also, while I didn't mention him, Philip Seymour Hoffman is also a threat. The Master may not be a favorite, but Hoffman's performance is the most difficult, and he is an actor's actor. If they can't decide between two old school guys, they may split the difference with Hoffman.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win/Should Win - Anne Hathaway "Les Miserables"
Could Win - Sally Field "Lincoln"
Commentary - Unless the hype about people hating her acceptance speech at the Globes manifests into something of substance, Anne Hathaway is unstoppable. If Field wins I will be surprised, but not shocked because she is well-liked and has only won one SAG awards in its history. But I wouldn't bet on it.

SAG Predictions: Comedy and Drama Ensemble

Best Ensemble in a Comedy Series
Will Win - Modern Family
Should Win - Modern Family or Big Bang Theory
Could Win - 30 Rock

Commentary - Since the SAG committee did not nominate two to TV's best ensembles (New Girl and Parks & Recreation), then the two that actually deserve to win are TV's biggest comedies: The Big Bang Theory or Modern Family. But let's not pretend like we don't all know what is going to happen. Modern Family will win in a walk, and my jaw will drop if it doesn't win. The only other one I think even has a shot is 30 Rock, which has nostalgia in its favor.

Best Ensemble in a Drama Series
Will Win - Homeland
Should Win - Downton Abbey or Breaking Bad
Could Win - Boardwalk Empire or Downton Abbey

Commentary - Homeland is so popular, that I think that the SAG voters are willing to overlook the better ensembles for the better series. But watch out for two contenders to overtake them. The first is Boardwalk Empire which has won two years in a row, as it is chocked full popular character actors. The other is Downton Abbey, which is probably the best show on television in terms of working its sprawling cast into each storyline, and giving each character the treatment he/she deserves. That being said, it is going to be hard to overtake Homeland.

SAG Predictions: Best Actor and Actress in a Drama Series

Best Actor in a Drama Series
Will Win - Damian Lewis "Homeland"
Could Win - Steve Buscemi "Boardwalk Empire" or Bryan Cranston "Breaking Bad"
Should Win - Cranston

Commentary - After missing the cut with SAG last year, Homeland has surged, with both Lewis and Danes sweeping the major awards. That doesn't necessarily mean that SAG will embrace them as much as the Television Academy or the HFPA. That being said, I still think that the power of Homeland will be enough to give Lewis the win. But watch out for Buscemi. He is popular among the acting community and has won twice in a row.

Best Actress in a Drama Series
Will Win - Claire Danes "Homeland"
Could Win - Jessica Lange "American Horror Story: Asylum" or Maggie Smith "Downton Abbey"
Should Win - Lange

Commentary - Once again, Danes has to overcome some powerful odds to win, particularly with legends like Jessica Lange and Maggie Smith in the race. Still, I once again think that the power and popularity of Homeland will be enough for her to continue her winning streak.

London Film Critics Circle Award Winners

I firmly believe that if Life of Pi or Amour are going to surprise in top categories, their surge of support is going to come from the British. This is only further proof,  and the BAFTA's are the big deal in a few weeks.

FILM OF THE YEAR

Amour

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM OF THE YEAR
Rust & Bone

DOCUMENTARY OF THE YEAR
The Imposter

BRITISH FILM OF THE YEAR
Berberian Sound Studio

ACTOR OF THE YEAR
Joaquin Phoenix "The Master"

ACTRESS OF THE YEAR
Emmanuelle Riva "Amour"

SUPPORTING ACTOR OF THE YEAR
Philip Seymour Hoffman "The Master"

SUPPORTING ACTRESS OF THE YEAR
Anne Hathaway "Les Miserables"

BRITISH ACTOR OF THE YEAR
Toby Jones "Berberian Sound Studio"

BRITISH ACTRESS OF THE YEAR
Andrea Riseborough "Shadow Dancer"

YOUNG BRITISH PERFORMER OF THE YEAR
Tom Holland "The Impossible"

DIRECTOR OF THE YEAR
Ang Lee "Life of Pi"

SCREENWRITER OF THE YEAR
Michael Haneke "Amour"

BREAKTHROUGH BRITISH FILMMAKER
Alice Lowe and Steve Oram "Sightseers"

TECHNICAL ACHIEVEMENT AWARD
Life of Pi - visual effects Bill Westenhofer

DILYS POWELL AWARD FOR EXCELLENCE IN FILM
Helena Bonham Carter

The International Cinephile Society ICS Award Nominees

The ICS, according to their website: "an online group made up of approximately 80 accredited journalists, film scholars, historians, and other industry professionals who cover film festivals and events on five continents." Their website is: http://icsfilm.org/home. The Master leads this year's nominees!

PICTURE
• Amour
• Cloud Atlas
• Django Unchained
• Holy Motors
• Lincoln
• The Master
• Moonrise Kingdom
• Once Upon a Time in Anatolia
• Tabu
• Zero Dark Thirty

DIRECTOR
• Paul Thomas Anderson - The Master
• Kathryn Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty
• Leos Carax - Holy Motors
• Nuri Bilge Ceylan - Once Upon a Time in Anatolia
• Miguel Gomes - Tabu

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
• Alps
• Amour
• Holy Motors
• The Kid With a Bike
• Once Upon a Time in Anatolia
• Oslo, August 31st
• Rust and Bone
• Tabu
• This Is Not a Film
• The Turin Horse

ACTOR
• Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
• Denis Lavant - Holy Motors
• Anders Danielsen Lie - Oslo, August 31st
• Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
• Matthias Schoenaerts - Bullhead
• Jean-Louis Trintignant - Amour

ACTRESS
• Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
• Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone
• Greta Gerwig - Damsels in Distress
• Nina Hoss - Barbara
• Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
• Rachel Weisz - The Deep Blue Sea

SUPPORTING ACTOR
• Dwight Henry - Beasts of the Southern Wild
• Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
• Matthew McConaughey - Killer Joe
• Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained
• Jun-Sang Yu - In Another Country

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
• Amy Adams - The Master
• Rosemarie DeWitt - Your Sister's Sister
• Gina Gershon - Killer Joe
• Nicole Kidman - The Paperboy
• Edith Scob - Holy Motors

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
• Amour - Michael Haneke
• Holy Motors - Leos Carax
• The Master - Paul Thomas Anderson
• Moonrise Kingdom - Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
• Tabu - Miguel Gomes, Mariana Ricardo
• Zero Dark Thirty - Mark Boal

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
• Cosmopolis - David Cronenberg
• The Deep Blue Sea - Terence Davies
• Lincoln - Tony Kushner
• Oslo, August 31st - Joachim Trier, Eskil Vogt
• Rust and Bone - Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain

CINEMATOGRAPHY
• The Master - Mihai Malaimare Jr.
• Once Upon a Time in Anatolia - Gökhan Tiryaki
• Skyfall - Roger Deakins
• Tabu - Rui Poças
• The Turin Horse - Fred Kelemen

EDITING
• Cloud Atlas - Alexander Berner
• Holy Motors - Nelly Quettier
• The Master - Leslie Jones, Peter McNulty
• Moonrise Kingdom - Andrew Weisblum
• Zero Dark Thirty - William Goldenberg, Dylan Tichenor

PRODUCTION DESIGN
• Anna Karenina - Sarah Greenwood
• Holy Motors - Florian Sanson
• The Master - David Crank, Jack Fisk
• Moonrise Kingdom - Adam Stockhausen
• Prometheus - Arthur Max

ORIGINAL SCORE
• Anna Karenina - Dario Marianelli
• Beasts of the Southern Wild - Dan Romer, Benh Zeitlin
• Cloud Atlas - Reinhold Heil, Johnny Klimek, Tom Tykwer
• The Master - Jonny Greenwood
• Moonrise Kingdom - Alexandre Desplat

ENSEMBLE
• Holy Motors
• Lincoln
• Moonrise Kingdom
• Once Upon a Time in Anatolia
• Tabu

ANIMATED FILM
• Frankenweenie
• ParaNorman
• The Secret World of Arrietty
• Tatsumi
• Wreck-It Ralph

DOCUMENTARY
• How to Survive a Plague
• The Imposter
• Marina Abramovic: The Artist is Present
• The Queen of Versailles
• This Is Not a Film

BEST PICTURE NOT RELEASED IN 2012
• The Angels' Share
• The Atomic Age (L'âge atomique)
• Berberian Sound Studio
• Beyond the Hill (Tepenin Ardi)
• Beyond the Hills (Dupa dealuri)
• Blancanieves
• Caesar Must Die
• differently, Molussia
• Faust
• Frances Ha
• The Hunt (Jagten)
• In the House
• Klip
• Laurence Anyways
• Leviathan
• Lore
• No
• Our Children (A perdre la raison)
• Stories We Tell
• Student

SAG Predictions: Best Actor and Actress in a Comedy Series

Best Actor in a Comedy Series
Will Win - Alec Baldwin "30 Rock"
Could Win - Eric Stonestreet "Modern Family"
Should Win - Jim Parsons "The Big Bang Theory" or Louis C.K. "Louie"

Commentary - I can't help but look at the other four nominees and have a wave of sadness at the fact that despite doing relatively well at the Emmys, none of these guys have taken home individual SAG awards. I love Alec Baldwin, and I understand the nostalgia of this year for 30 Rock fans (which is why I would not be mad if the show did well at this year's Emmys), but he has won now six years in a row, and I just don't see anyone stopping him from winning number 7. Although in some ways, I hope I am wrong.

Best Actress in a Comedy Series
Will Win - Betty White "Hot in Cleveland"
Could Win/Should Win - Amy Poehler "Parks & Recreation" and Sofia Vergara "Modern Family"

Commentary - A lot of people are thinking that this year, someone like Amy or Sofia beats the legendary Betty White. Their thought may be that Hot in Cleveland's initial SAG success quickly evaporated, and that with White missing the Emmy nod this year, maybe the industry is ready to move on. Maybe they are all right, but if I had to bet money, I wouldn't pick any other name than Betty White. She is a living legend, beloved my everyone (including me), she always gets standing ovations and gives great speeches. It would be nice to see someone different win every once in a while, but like those four or five years with Mariska Hargitay at the Emmys: I ain't jumpin ship until history stops repeating itself.

New Oscar Polls in Sidebar

As we get closer to the Oscars there will be new polls every week, where you will get the chance to vote for your predictions. This week, pick who you think will win Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Original Screenplay at next month's ceremony.

SAG Predictions: Best Actor in a TV Movie/Miniseries

Will Win - Kevin Costner "Hatfields & McCoys"

Could Win - Ed Harris "Game Change"

Should Win - Woody Harrelson "Game Change"

Commentary - For my money, this race is between the two winners of the Golden Globes, Ed Harris and Kevin Costner. In his illustrious history at the SAG, Ed Harris has only won two of his nine nominations. But nonetheless, he is clearly popular among the Screen Actors Guild and is definitely a threat to win. However, Costner has never had the opportunity to win, because this is his first nomination. He has won both the Globe and the Emmy, and has given heartfelt speeches at both (unlike Harris who didn't even come to the Globes to accept). While this is a tight race, I think that the actors will relish in the chance to give Costner the award.

SAG Predictions: Best Actress in a Television Movie/Miniseries

Will Win/Should Win - Julianne Moore "Game Change "

Could Win - Nicole Kidman "Hemingway and Gelhorn" or Alfre Woodard "Steel Magnolias"

Commentary -  Nicole Kidman was well-liked enough by SAG members to manage a nomination for The Paperboy, which is not exactly an awards magnet. Alfre Woodard is beloved among the actors of the television community. She has been nominated for 16 Emmys and won four of them, and six SAG nominations, half of which she has taken home. That is a stellar record, so don't be surprised if she pulls off an upset here (and becomes an Emmy frontrunner whether she wins or not). But I think that Julianne Moore's stunning portrayal of Sarah Palin, which has already won her an Emmy and a Golden Globe, will be too much for either Kidman or Woodard to overcome.

Motion Picture Sound Editing (MPSE) Nominations

Four of the five Oscar nominees made the cut, Argo, Life of Pi, Skyfall, and Django Unchained. Zero Dark Thirty was surprisingly left off the list. I am never sure how the MPSE affects the Oscars, but my money is going on Life of Pi or Skyfall for the Oscar win.

Best Sound Editing: Sound Effects, Foley, Dialogue and ADR in an Animation Feature Film

Brave
A Cat in Paris
Frankenweenie
The Lorax
ParaNorman
Pirates: Band of Misfits
Rise of the Guardians
Wreck-it Ralph

Best Sound Editing: Sound Effects, Foley, Dialogue, ADR and Music in a Feature Documentary

Bully
Climate Refugees
Jiro Dreams of Sushi
Last Call at the Oasis
Marley
Searching for Sugarman

Best Sound Editing: Sound Effects, Foley, Dialogue and ADR in a Feature Foreign Language Film

80 Million
Amour
Children of Sarajevo
The Hypnotist
The Intouchables
Rust & Bone

Best Sound Editing: Music in a Feature Film

Argo
The Cabin in the Woods
The Dark Knight Rises
Django Unchained
The Hobbit
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

Best Sound Editing: Music in a Musical Feature Film

Joyful Noise
Les Misérables
Pitch Perfect
Rock of Ages

Best Sound Editing: Dialogue and ADR in a Feature Film

Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Hobbit
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Skyfall

Best Sound Editing: Sound Effects and Foley in a Feature Film

Argo
The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
Django Unchained
The Hobbit
Life of Pi
Prometheus
Skyfall

Best Sound Editing: Sound Effects, Foley, Dialogue and ADR Animation in Television

Adventure Time "Card Wars"
Family Guy "Yug Ylimaf"
Lego Star Wars "The Empire Strikes Out"
Robot and Monster "Security Risk/Ogo's Birthday"
Robot Chicken: DC Comics Special
SpongeBob SquarePants "Gary's New Toy"
SpongeBob SquarePants "It's a SpongeBob Christmas"

Best Sound Editing: Long Form Documentary

The Interrupters
Love Hate Love
Rolling Stones Crossfire Hurricane

Best Sound Editing: Long Form Music in Television

Damages "But You Don't Do That Anymore"
Girl VS. Monster
Hatfields & McCoys "Night 2"
Hemingway & Gellhorn
Titanic "Night 1"

Best Sound Editing: Short Form Music in Television

The Borgias "The Siege at Forli"
Castle "The Blue Butterfly"
CSI: Miami "It Was A Very Good Year"
Fringe "A Short Story About Love"
Game of Thrones Season 2 "Blackwater"
Person of Interest "Fire Wall"

Best Sound Editing: Long Form Dialogue and ADR in Television

Coma
Game of Thrones Season 2 "Valar Morghulis"
The Newsroom "We Just Decided To"
Steel Magnolias
Titanic "Mini Series 4"

Best Sound Editing: Long Form Sound Effects and Foley in Television

Coma
Game of Thrones Season 2 "Valar Morghulis"
Hemingway & Gellhorn
The Newsroom: "We Just Decided To"
SEAL Team Six: The Raid on Osama Bin Laden

Best Sound Editing: Long Form Musical in Television

Camp Rock 2: The Final Jam
Lemonade Mouth
Let it Shine

Best Sound Editing: Short Form Musical in Television

Glee "The New Rachel"
Smash "Hell on Earth"
Smash "PILOT"

Best Sound Editing: Short Form Dialogue and ADR in Television

BOSS "Backflash"
Game of Thrones Season 2 "Blackwater"
Homeland "The Smile"
The Newsroom "Amen"
Saving Hope "Pilot 101"
True Blood "We'll Meet Again"
The Walking Dead "Better Angels"
World Without End "King"

Best Sound Editing: Short Form Sound Effects and Foley in Television

Alcatraz "PILOT"
Alphas "Wake up Call"
American Horror Story "Welcome to Briarcliff"
The Borgias "The Siege at Forli"
Game of Thrones Season 2 "Blackwater"
Grimm "The Other Side"
The Walking Dead "Beside the Dying Fire"

Costume Designer's Guild (CDG) Nominees

Some interesting nominations including Beasts of the Southern Wild, but all five Oscar nominees did make the cut, and the exclusion of Django Unchained, which surprised some people, seems to have repeated itself here. The inclusions of Argo, Silver Linings, and the exclusion of Life of Pi do say something about where this particular branch stands at the Oscars. Most likely the winner of the Period film will determine who wins the Oscar, but watch out for Academy favorite Colleen Atwood.

EXCELLENCE IN CONTEMPORARY FILM
Beasts of the Southern Wild – Stephani Lewis
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel – Louise Stjernsward
Silver Linings Playbook – Mark Bridges
Skyfall – Jany Temime
Zero Dark Thirty – George L. Little

EXCELLENCE IN PERIOD FILM
Anna Karenina – Jacqueline Durran
Argo – Jacqueline West
Les Misérables – Paco Delgado
Lincoln – Joanna Johnston
Moonrise Kingdom – Kasia Walicka-Maimone

EXCELLENCE IN FANTASY FILM
Cloud Atlas – Kym Barrett, Pierre-Yves Gayraud
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey – Ann Maskrey, Richard Taylor, Bob Buck
The Hunger Games – Judianna Makovsky
Mirror Mirror – Eiko Ishioka
Snow White and the Huntsman – Colleen Atwood

OUTSTANDING CONTEMPORARY TELEVISION SERIES
Girls – Jennifer Rogien
Nashville – Susie DeSanto
Revenge – Jill Ohanneson
Smash – Molly Maginnis
Treme – Alonzo Wilson, Costume Designer. Ann Walters, co-Costume Designer

OUTSTANDING PERIOD/FANTASY TELEVISION SERIES
Boardwalk Empire – John Dunn, Lisa Padovani
Downton Abbey – Caroline McCall
Game of Thrones – Michele Clapton

OUTSTANDING MADE FOR TELEVISION MOVIE OR MINI SERIES
American Horror Story: Asylum, Season 2 – Lou Eyrich
Hatfields & McCoys – Karri Hutchinson
Hemingway & Gellhorn – Ruth Myers

EXCELLENCE IN COMMERCIAL COSTUME DESIGN
Capital One: Couture – Roseanne Fiedler
Captain Morgan Black – Judianna Makovsky
Dos Equis: Most Interesting Man in the World – Julie Vogel

2012 Black Reel Award Nominees

I am truly embarrassed that I missed these nominations which were released in December. In the crazy awards season something is bound to be overlooked. I apologize and make no excuses other than I simply missed the memo. The Black Reel Awards honor African American achievement in film and television, and will be handed out on February 7th.

Outstanding Motion Picture
Beasts of the Southern Wild | Michael Gottwald, John Penn & Dan Javey (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Django Unchained | Reginald Huldin, Pilar Savone & Stacey Sher (Columbia Pictures)/(The Weinstein Company)
Flight | Laurie McDonald, Walter F. Parkes, Jack Rapke, Steve Starkey & Robert Zemeckis (Paramount)
The Intouchables | Laurent Zeitoun, Nicolas Duval-Adassovsky & Yann Zenou (The Weinstein Company)
Middle of Nowhere | Ava DuVernay, Paul Garnes & Howard Barish (AFFRM)

Outstanding Actor
Jamie Foxx | Django Unchained (Columbia Pictures)/(The Weinstein Company)
Nate Parker | Red Tails (20th Century Fox)/(LucasFilm)
Chris Rock | 2 Days in New York (Magnolia Pictures)
Omar Sy | The Intouchables (The Weinstein Company)
Denzel Washington | Flight (Paramount)

Outstanding Actress
Halle Berry | Cloud Atlas (Warner Brothers)
Emayatzy Corinealdi | Middle of Nowhere (AFFRM)
Viola Davis | Won’t Back Down (20th Century Fox)
Rashida Jones | Celeste and Jesse Forever (Sony Pictures Classics)
Quvenzhane Wallis | Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight)

Outstanding Supporting Actor
Mike Epps | Sparkle (Tristar Pictures)
Dwight Henry | Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight)
Samuel L. Jackson | Django Unchained (Columbia Pictures)/(The Weinstein Company)
David Oyelowo | Middle of Nowhere (AFFRM)
Nate Parker | Arbitrage (Lionsgate)

Outstanding Supporting Actress
Naomie Harris | Skyfall (MGM)/ (Columbia)
Octavia Spencer | Smashed (Sony Pictures Classics)
Lorraine Toussaint | Middle of Nowhere (AFFRM)
Tamara Tunie | Flight (Paramount)
Kerry Washington | Django Unchained (Columbia)/(The Weinstein Company)

Outstanding Director
Salim Akil | Sparkle (Tristar Pictures)
Ava DuVernay | Middle of Nowhere (AFFRM)
Spike Lee | Red Hook Summer (Variance Films)
Peter Ramsey | Rise of the Guardians (Paramount
Tim Story | Think Like A Man (Screen Gems)

Outstanding Screenplay (Adapted or Original)
Mara Brock Akil | Sparkle (Tristar Pictures)
Ava DuVernay | Middle of Nowhere (AFFRM)
Rashida Jones & Will McCormack | Celeste and Jesse Forever (Sony Pictures Classics)
Spike Lee & James McBride | Red Hook Summer (Variance Films)
Aaron McGruder & John Ridley | Red Tails (20th Century Fox)/(LucasFilm)

Outstanding Feature Documentary
Bad 25 | Spike Lee
Brooklyn Castle | Katie Dallamaggiore (Producers Distribution Agency)
The Central Park Five | SarahBurns, Ken Burns & David McMahon (Sundance Select)
Marley | Kevin McDonald (Magnolia Pictures)
Searching for Sugar Man | Malik Bendjelloul (Sony Pictures Classics)

Outstanding Ensemble
Django Unchained | Casting Director: Victoria Thomas (Columbia)/(The Weinstein Company)
Flight | Casting Director: Victoria Burrows (Paramount)
Middle of Nowhere | Casting Director: Aisha Coley (AFFRM)
Sparkle | Casting Director: Twinkie Byrd (Tristar Pictures)
Think  Like A Man | Casting Director: Kim Hardin (Screen Gems)

Outstanding Foreign Film
Elza | Guadeloupe (Autonomous Entertainment)
The Intouchables | France (The Weinstein Company)
Ties That Bind | South Africa (Image Entertainment)
Toussaint L’Ouverture| France
Wuthering Heights | United Kingdom (Laboratories)

Outstanding Score
Terence Blanchard | Red Tails (20th Century Fox)/(LucasFilm)
Kathryn Bostic | Middle of Nowhere (AFFRM)
Bruce Hornsby | Red Hook Summer (Variance Films)
Salaam Remi | Sparkle (Tristar Pictures)
Dan Romer & Behn Zeitilin | Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight Studios)

Outstanding Original or Adapted Song (awarded to the artist and songwriter)
“Carry It”  from The Man With the Iron Fists | Performed and Written by: Travis Barker, RZA, Tom Morrello & Raekwon (Universal)
“Celebrate” from Sparkle | Performed by: Jordin Sparks & Whitney Houston; Written by: R. Kelly (Tristar Pictures)
“No Church in the Wild” from Safe House | Performed by: Jay-Z, Kanye West & Frank Ocean; Written by: Jay-Z, Kanye West, Frank Ocean, The-Dream, Chales Nipa, Joseph Roach, Gary Wright, James Brown, Michael Dean & Phil Manzanera (Universal)
“Tonight (Best You Ever Had)” from Think Like a Man | Performed by: John Legend & Ludacris; Written: Allen Arthur, Keith Justice, Clayton Reilly, Miguel Pimental, John Legend & Ludacris (Screen Gems)
“Who Did That to You” from Django Unchained | Performed by: John Legend; Written by: John Legend & Paul Epworth (Columbia Pictures)/(The Weinstein Company)

Outstanding Breakthrough Performance
Emayatzy Corinealdi | Middle of Nowhere (AFFRM)
Dwight Henry | Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight Studios)
Amandla Stenberg | The Hunger Games (Lionsgate)
Omar Sy | The Intouchables (The Weinstein Company)
Quvenzhane Wallis | Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight Studios)

Outstanding Voice Performance
Tempestt Bledsoe | ParaNorman (Focus Features)
Dennis Haysbert | Wreck-it Ralph (Walt Disney)
Queen Latifah | Ice Age: Continental Drift (20th Century Fox)
Chris Rock | Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted (Paramount)
Wanda Sykes | Ice Age: Continental Drift (20th Century Fox)

Outstanding Independent Film
Elza | Mariette Monpierre (Autonomous Entertainment)
Four | Joshua Sanchez
The Last Fall | Matthew A. Cherry (Image Entertainment)
LUV | Sheldon Candis (Indomina Releasing)
Yelling to the Sky | Victoria Mahoney (MPI Media Group)

Outstanding Independent Documentary
BMF: The Rise and Fall of Hip-Hop Drug Empire | D. Skiorski
Contradictions of Fair Hope | S. Epatha Merkerson & Rockell Metcalf
From Fatherless to Fatherhood | Kobie Brown
Justice for Sale | Femke & Isla van Velzen
Soul Food Junkies | Bryon Hurt

Outstanding Independent Short
The Bluest Note | Marques Green
Crossover | Tina  Mabry
The Last/First Kiss | Andrea Ashton
Record/Play | Jesse Atlas
White Space | Maya Washington

Outstanding Television Documentary
The Announcement | Nelson George (ESPN)
Brooklyn Boheme | Nelson George (Showtime)
On the Shoulders of Giants | Deborah Morales (Showtime)
Slavery by Another Name | Samuel D. Pollard (PBS)
Uprising: Hip-Hop and the LA Riots | Mark Ford (VH1)

Outstanding TV Movie or Mini-Series
A Beautiful Soul | Noel Jones, Holly Davis Carter, Danny Green, Kimberly Ogletree & Dominique Telson (TVOne)
Let It Shine | Amy Gibbons & David Nelson (Disney Channel)
Raising Izzie | Angelique Bones & Valencia Y. Hawkins (The Gospel Music Channel)
Somebody’s Child | Keith Neal, David Eubanks & Eric Tomosunas (The Gospel Music Channel)
Steel Magnolias | David A. Rosemont (Lifetime)

Outstanding Actor in a TV Movie or Mini-Series
Rockmond Dunbar | Raising Izzie (The Gospel Music Channel)
Cuba Gooding Jr. | Firelight (ABC)
Trevor Jackson | Let It Shine (Disney Channel)
Sean Patrick Thomas | Murder on the 13th Floor (Lifetime)
Michael Jai White | Somebody’s Child (The Gospel Music Channel)

Outstanding Actress in a TV Movie or Mini-Series
Aunjanue Ellis | Abducted: The Carlina White Story (Lifetime)
Queen Latifah | Steel Magnolias (Lifetime)
Keke Palmer | Abducted: The Carlina White Story (Lifetime)
Vanessa A. Williams | Raising Izzie (The Gospel Music Channel)
Lynn Whitfield | Somebody’s Child (Gospel Music Channel)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a TV Movie or Mini-Series
Danny Glover | Hannah’s Law (Hallmark Channel)
Louis Gossett Jr. | Smitty (The Gospel Music Channel)
Boris Kodjoe | Killer Amongst Us (Lifetime)
Harry J. Lennix | A Beautiful Soul (TVOne)
Courtney B. Vance | Let It Shine (Disney Channel)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a TV Movie or Mini-Series
Adepero Oduye | Steel Magnolias (Lifetime)
Phylicia Rashad | Steel Magnolias (Lifetime)
Gloria Reuben | Jesse Stone: Benefit of the Doubt (CBS)
Jill Scott | Steel Magnolias (Lifetime)
Alfre Woodard | Steel Magnolias (Lifetime)

Outstanding Director in a TV Movie or Mini-Series
Roger M. Bobb | Raising Izzie (The Gospel Music Channel)
Vondie Curtis-Hall | Abducted: The Carlina White Story (Lifetime)
Kenny Leon | Steel Magnolias (Lifetime)
Darnell Martin | Firelight (ABC)
Bille Woodruff | Rags (Nickelodeon)

Outstanding Writing in a TV Movie or Mini-Series
David Martyn Conley | Raising Izzie (The Gospel Music Channel)
Eric Daniel | Let It Shine (Disney Channel)
Elizabeth Hunter | Abducted: The Carlina White Story (Lifetime)
Siddeeqah Powell | Somebody’s Child (The Gospel Music Channel)
Cas Sigers | A Cross to Bear (The Gospel Music Channel)

New Archive Pages in Sidebar

The next two days, we will see the Costume Designer's Guild and Motion Picture Sound Editors nominees. Today, there was not much news, but over the last couple of days I have put up new pages in the sidebar that will serve as archives for the four different awards that this site will continue to present every year honoring film, television, music, and the Halfway Awards, which is entering its fifth year this July. Check them out!

USC Scripter Nominees

This is always an interesting award, honoring both the sourch material and the screenplay of adapted works. While it has no connection to the Oscars, most winners in Adapted Screenplay have gotten at least a nomination here, and the winner has matched up rather well in recent years as The Descendants, The Social Network, No Country for Old Men, and Slumdog Millionaire all went on to win Oscars. This year's nominees resulted in a tie, with the five Oscar contenders matched up against the presumed sixth contender The Perks of Being a Wallflower. My guess is that Lincoln, which was probably the most difficult and complex adaptation of the year, and also the best in my humble opinion, takes the prize this year. The winner will be announced Saturday Feb. 9th. and there will be a live webcast on their website.

• Joshuah Bearman, author of the article “The Great Escape,” Antonio J. Mendez, author of The Master of Disguise, and screenwriter Chris Terrio, for Argo
• For Beasts of the Southern Wild, dramatist Lucy Alibar, who wrote the play Juicy and Delicious, and screenwriter Benh Zeitlin, who co-wrote the screenplay with Alibar
• Novelist Yann Martel and screenwriter David Magee for Life of Pi
• Doris Kearns Goodwin, author of Team of Rivals: The Political Genius of Abraham Lincoln, and screenwriter Tony Kushner for Lincoln
• Stephen Chbosky, author of the novel Perks of Being a Wallflower, as well as the screenplay based upon the book
• For Silver Linings Playbook, author Matthew Quick and screenwriter David O. Russell

DGA Documentary Feature Nominees

This year's DGA nominees for Documentary Feature, feature three Oscar nominees, and two films that were beloved by many and snubbed in the final count. With the new rules that say everyone within the Academy can vote for Documentary Feature, this race will rely more heavily on its precursor awards, as many voters will probably skip the screeners and fall in line with DGA/PGA, etc. I hope this isn't true, but as all of us who follow the Oscars know, it's probably the case. That helps Searching for Sugar Man, How to Survive a Plague, and The Invisible War, who all would gain incredible exposure to the broader Academy with a DGA win on Feb. 2nd.

"Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry" (Alison Klayman)
"How to Survive a Plague" (David France)
"The Invisible War" (Kirby Dick)
"The Queen of Versailles" (Lauren Greenfield)
"Searching for Sugar Man" (Malik Bendjelloul)

State of the Oscar Race: Can Argo Still Win?

In this mixed up and messed up Oscar season, the lay of the land as we know it can change at any time. On Thursday morning the snubs of Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow left our jaws on the floor, as two once great contender seemed to collapse within an instant. Then on Thursday at the horrendously orchestrated Critics Choice Awards (Seriously the BFCA just got it all wrong), Argo took the top prize. Last night at the Golden Globes, it did the same thing. More importantly, Affleck won both director awards as well. So my question is this: can Argo, despite a lack of a Best Director nomination, still win Best Picture at the Academy Awards? After the nominations were announced, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, and Life of Pi emerged as the strongest contenders, despite the fact that none of them had won any major precursor events, and still haven't. Is Argo still in the mix?

I theorize that with PGA/BAFTA/DGA/WGA/SAG supporting across the board in all major categories, Argo is still one of the top contenders for the prize for Best Picture. At last night's Golden Globes, the room seem elated with the fact that that Affleck had won. Despite the Director's Branch of the Academy not agreeing, Argo and Affleck still seem very well liked throughout the Hollywood community. Plus, Affleck could pull a stunner and win the DGA, a nice middle finger to the more highbrowed members that also belong to AMPAS. A trajectory could follow something like this. First, SAG goes to either SLP or Lincoln, confirming that these two are the actors' favorite choices. The PGA could easily go to Argo, as will most likely the BAFTA where it cleaned up in nominations Wednesday morning. The WGA will probably be split with Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty. Then it comes down to the DGA. In fact, it really comes down to the PGA and the DGA. Could the directors pull a coup d'etat and give Affleck the prize.

Everyone points out that the last film to win without a director's nomination was Driving Miss Daisy. But Driving Miss Daisy missed the DGA as well, something Affleck did not. Driving Miss Daisy also did not come out in 2012. This has been a strange year where statistic after statistic is constantly proven wrong. For example, there are those that argue, rightfully so, that the BFCA and HFPA ballots were both turned in before the Oscar nominations had been announced, when Argo looked like the top contender for the prize. If they had been released afterwards, maybe SLP could have beaten Les Mis, although the HFPA rarely thinks like that. But the BFCA surely would have switched gears, as their constant need to match the Oscars gets more ridiculous every year.

Despite this contradictory evidence, a win is a win, and Affleck's heartfelt speeches are being watched by plenty of voters who could easily be charmed back onto the Argo bandwagon. My point to this winded and confusing rant is that in this year, I choose to believe that anything is possible, because time and time again it is proven to me. SLP could benefit from being the underdog movie with Weinstein on its side. Life of Pi could be the visionary film that sweeps the voters off their feet, and a way to honor past snubs of Ang Lee films. Lincoln is the one at the moment that seems to have it all going its way, and it is right up the Academy's alley. But the one to watch out for is Argo, and I firmly believe that its director snub only strengthened the will and determination of those that champion it. Basically, I think it is safe to say that Bette Davis put it best in All About Eve when it comes to Oscar night 2013: "Fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy night."

The 70th Annual Golden Globe Award Winners

I will be updating the winners live! Enjoy the show:

Film
Best Picture Drama - Argo
Best Picture Comedy/Musical - Les Miserables
Best Actor Drama - Daniel Day-Lewis "Lincoln"
Best Actress Drama - Jessica Chastain "Zero Dark Thirty"
Best Director - Ben Affleck "Argo"
Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical - Hugh Jackman "Les Miserables"
Best Actress in a Comedy/Musical - Jennifer Lawrence "Silver Linings Playbook"
Best Supporting Actor - Christoph Waltz "Django Unchained"
Best Supporting Actress - Anne Hathaway "Les Miserables"
Best Foreign Language Film - Amour (Austria)
Best Animated Feature Film - Brave
Best Original Score - Mychael Danna "Life of Pi"
Best Original Song - Paul Epworth and Adele "Skyfall" from Skyfall
Best Screenplay - Quentin Tarantino "Django Unchained"

Television
Best Drama Series - Homeland
Best Comedy Series - Girls
Best Actor in a Drama Series - Damian Lewis "Homeland"
Best Actress in a Drama Series - Claire Danes "Homeland"
Best Actor in a Comedy Series - Don Cheadle "House of Lies"
Best Actress in a Comedy Series - Lena Dunham "Girls"
Best Miniseries or TV Movie - Game Change
Best Actor in a TV Movie/Miniseries - Kevin Costner "Hatfields & McCoys"
Best Actress in a TV Movie/Miniseries - Julianne Moore "Game Change"
Best Supporting Actor - Ed Harris "Game Change"
Best Supporting Actress - Maggie Smith "Downton Abbey"

Academy Opens Up Voting for Documentary Feature, Live Action and Animated Shorts

Yesterday, Howard Koch, the president of AMPAS announced that three categories usually reserved for those who went to special screenings are now open to all Academy members, and that screeners were being sent out soon. Those three categories are Documentary Feature, Live Action Short, and Animated Short. I am not sure why they haven't done the same for Documentary Short or Foreign Language film, but oh well. I think that in terms of the Doc category, this opens it up even more to the more populist choices. The voting in the last decade has either gone to popular choices or hard-hitting political docs. So most likely the voting won't change too dramatically. In terms of the shorts, I have no idea how this will affect their winners. I find it hard to believe Academy members watch all the full-length films, let alone ten short films. But at least this may cause some exposure to these filmmakers, which are usually up and coming, and more exposure to short filmmaking in the first place. Either way this is a big change for the Academy, and could signal even more changes, maybe involving the antiquated Foreign Language process.

Golden Globe Film Winner Predictions

Best Picture - Drama
Will Win/Should Win - Lincoln
Could Win - Argo
Commentary - Just because the Academy's director's branch failed to nomiante Ben Affleck, it does not mean that Argo is any less beloved around Hollywood. That being said, I feel like Lincoln will end up taking the prize as its momentum grows, and the HFPA and Dreamworks connection. But if Argo wins here, and continues to win as the season goes on, it will continue to defy its director snub, and could still win the Oscar.

Best Picture - Comedy/Musical
Will Win - Les Miserables
Could Win/Should Win - Silver Linings Playbook
Commentary - With the Weinstein machine behind it, Silver Linings Playbook is definitely in the mix. But The HFPA loves its musicals, and Les Miserables is the biggest one they have had in a long time. Expect it to take the prize.

Best Actor - Drama
Will Win/Should Win - Daniel Day-Lewis "Lincoln"
Could Win - Denzel Washington "Flight"
Commentary - If anyone other than Day-Lewis wins, I will be shocked.

Best Actress - Drama
Will Win/Should Win - Jessica Chastain "Zero Dark Thirty"
Could Win - Marion Cotillard "Rust & Bone"
Commentary - Marion Cotillard may have missed the Oscar nod, but the HFPA is fond of her, and she brings international credentials. That being said, Chastain is the rising star, and in a Best Picture nominee, and will most likely claim the prize.

Best Actor - Comedy/Musical
Will Win - Hugh Jackman "Les Miserables"
Could Win - Bradley Cooper "Silver Linings Playbook"
Should Win - Jack Black "Bernie"
Commentary - I would love to see Jack Black win the Globe for his turn in Bernie, but this is a close horse race between two Oscar nominees: Bradley Cooper and Hugh Jackman. I feel like Jackman's emotional performance will be more appealing than Coopers, but both films are popular, and either one could win.

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win - Philip Seymour Hoffman "The Master"
Could Win- Tommy Lee Jones "Lincoln" or Leonardo Dicaprio "Django Unchained"
Should Win - Dicaprio or Jones
Commentary - I think that the Django boys will split votes, as will the two veterans in Arkin and Jones, and someone like Hoffman, whose presence in this race is one that seems to stand out, begins a march to Oscar with a surprise Golden Globe win.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win/Should Win - Anne Hathaway "Les Miserables"
Could Win - Sally Field "Lincoln"
Commentary - In her march to the Oscar, the only person I think that can stop her is the great Sally Field who nailed Mary Todd Lincoln. But Hathaway was stunning, and deserves to win really, and I think she will continue her march to Oscar tonight.

Best Director
Will Win/Should Win - Steven Spielberg "Lincoln"
Could Win - Ben Affleck "Argo"
Commentary - Once again, if HFPA loves Argo, then Oscars be damned! I think though if Lincoln wins Picture, then Spielberg is probably the frontrunner in this category as well.

Best Screenplay
Will Win/Should Win - Tony Kushner "Lincoln"
Could Win - David O. Russell "Silver Linings Playbook" or Quentin Tarantino "Django Unchained" or Chris Terrio "Argo"
Commentary - Really any of these scribes could win, but I get the feeling that this year's Adapted Screenplay race is like that of 2010's where Aaron Sorkin was a shoo-in despite the film's shaky Best Picture chances. The prize for Best Picture is definitely a toss-up but just about everyone agrees that the difficulty and skill it took to adapt Doris Kearns Goodwin's Team of Rivals is awards-worthy.

Best Animated Feature
Will Win - Frankenweenie
Could Win - Wreck-It Ralph
Should Win - Either one.
Commentary - We have two really great animated films fighting it out this year, and while Wreck-It Ralph was the success story, the HFPA have rewarded Burton films in the past, and the funny and charming Frankenweenie might just be his ticket to winning an award for himself.

Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win/Should - Amour
Could Win - The Intouchables
Commentary - I have finally caught up with Michael Haneke's Amour, and it is a stunning film with two incredible performances (I am now rooting for either Wallis or Riva to win the Oscar). But watch out for the very popular Intouchables, who was shockingly left off the Oscar five.

Best Original Score
Will Win/Should Win - John Williams "Lincoln"
Could Win - Mychael Danna "Life of Pi" or Alexandre Desplat "Argo"
Commentary - Williams is the legend, and won the Critics Choice Awards. I honestly don't know what's going to happen in this category, and the Globes are not always great at predicting repeats. So I'll stick with the obvious, but expect a surprise.

Best Original Song
Will Win/Should Win - Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth for "Skyfall" from Skyfall
Could Win - Not Running Anymore or Safe and Sound.
Commentary - The Globes always choose a popular artist over the quality of the song, so either Taylor Swift, Jon Bon Jovi, or Adele is going to win. My money is on Adele, which also happens to be the best of the bunch.

Golden Globe Television Predictions

Best Drama Series
Will Win - Homeland
Should Win - Breaking Bad
Could Win - Downton Abbey
Commentary - If you got rid of Boardwalk Empire and replaced it with Parenthood, Game of Thrones, The Good Wife, etc., this category would be a really great one. Breaking Bad is in its last epic season, and hopefully will get some awards love as the year goes on. Downton Abbey is a perennial favorite, and The Newsroom is the hot new show that the Globes love to honor. But alas, with Homeland in this group, I think the race is over.

Best Comedy Series
Will Win - Girls
Should Win - The Big Bang Theory
Could Win - Modern Family or Episodes
Commentary - The inclusion of Smash over much better comedies like New Girl or Parks and Rec is not unusual, but not right either. That being said, I think this race is between favorite Modern Family, who is having a decent season, and the newcomer to the race Girls. With the Drama side favoring the old guard, I think that the HFPA will eat up the newcomer. For my money, The Big Bang Theory may not be the most original or the most gravitas show on television. But it is consisently funny, has a great cast, and week after week breaks ratings record. It has also yet to have a huge awards impact. I think it is about time it does.

Best Actor in a Drama Series
Will Win - Jeff Daniels "The Newsroom"
Should Win - Bryan Cranston "Breaking Bad"
Could Win - Cranston or Damian Lewis "Homeland"
Commentary - Most pundits are going with Lewis, after his Emmy win, and the continued success of Homeland. Both he and Cranston would be great choices. But my money is on an upset, as one usually comes around in the television categories every year (think Katey Segal for Sons of Anarchy). Jeff Daniels is one of the best parts of The Newsroom, a good show that is flawed, but got better as its season went on. He is a veteran and simultaneously, a newcomer to the race. And with all the same old choices surrounding him, HFPA voters might want to mix it up a little and go for the new guy on the block.

Best Actress in a Drama Series
Will Win - Clarie Danes "Homeland"
Could Win/Should Win - Julianne Margulies "The Good Wife" or Michelle Dockery "Downton Abbey"
Commentary - For the record, I had always admired Downton Abbey, but over the last couple weeks (in preparation for Season 3), I have rewatched the episodes, and have suddenly caught Downton fever. Danes will win, and it is deserved. My perennial favorite is Margulies, but The Good Wife has slipped in terms of awards attention. If I had a choice, I would probably vote for Michelle Dockery, whose role of Mary is, to be frank, astoundingly good.

Best Actor in a Comedy Series
Will Win/Should Win - Louis C.K. "Louie"
Could Win - Alec Baldwin "30 Rock" or Matt LeBlanc "Episodes" or Don Cheadle "House of Lies"
Commentary - This one could really go anyway. They could go for Baldwin for his last few tries for 30 Rock. Matt LeBlanc won before, and Don Cheadle is a movie star. Instead, I am going with Louis C.K. who is cool enough (the male Lena Dunham) that the Globes may respond.

Best Actress in a Comedy Series
Will Win - Lena Dunham "Girls"
Could Win/Should Win - Amy Poehler "Parks & Recreation" and Julia-Louis Dreyfuss "Veep"
Commentary - I would love to see Poehler or Louis-Dreyfuss win, but my guess is that the new star in Hollywood Lena Dunham will take it instead. Although since Poehler is hosting, you can't count anything out.

Best Television Movie/Miniseries
Will Win/Should Win - Game Change
Could Win - Hatfields & McCoys or The Hour
Commentary - The two main miniseries in the category could be Globes favorites, as they tend to favor miniseries over movies, especially The Hour which has international appeal. But Game Change was such a huge hit, that I don't think they can overcome its popularity.

Best Actor in a TV Movie/Miniseries
Will Win/Should Win - Benedict Cumberbatch "Sherlock"
Could Win - Kevin Costner "Hatfields & McCoys"
Commentary - The American Television Academy went for the star power of Kevin Costner, and the Globes could follow in suite. But the international and rising star nature of Benedict Cumberbatch may take home the prize instead.

Best Actress in a TV Movie/Miniseries
Will Win/Should Win - Julianne Moore "Game Change"
Could Win - Jessica Lange "American Horror Story: Asylum" or Nicole Kidman "Hemingway and Gelhorn"
Commentary - A tight race with so many Globe favorites, but I think that Julianne Moore's Sarah Palin will be too much to pass up.

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win/Should Win - Max Greenfield "New Girl"
Could Win - Mandy Patinkin "Homeland" or Ed Harris "Game Change"
Commentary - With so many big names, legends, and serious performances, I think that lighter and hilarious performance of Max Greenfield will stand out enough to take home a surprise win.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win - Maggie Smith "Downton Abbey"
Could Win - Sofia Vergara "Modern Family" or Sarah Paulson "Game Change"
Should Win - Hayden Panettiere "Nashville"
Commentary - She's Maggie Smith. Enough Said.