Wednesday, January 9, 2013

State of the Oscar Race: Final Nomination Predictions - Picture, Acting, and Cinematography

Best Picture
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Other Contenders - The Master, Skyfall, Flight, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, The Intouchables, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, The Impossible

Commentary - I feel that Argo, Lincoln, Life of Pi, Silver Linings, ZDT, Les Mis, and Django are all locked and loaded for tomorrow's nominations. It is the other three potential slots that are tricky. The Master could make it in like Tree of Life last year, but it just does not seem to be well liked among the industry. However, a passionate fan base like its is beneficial. Skyfall failed to get some key BAFTA's this year, so if the Brits don't support it, I don't think that the Americans will either. So instead I am first going with two indie films that had some trouble getting off the ground, but could both benefit from passionate supports. Of course I am talking about Moonrise Kingdom and Beasts of the Southern Wild. Their lack of major guild support is discerning, but I think that both have enough 1st place votes to get into the mix. Finally, I am going out on a limb. Amour is the kind of film that garners passionate support, and after the BAFTA nod today, I am beginning to think that Michael Haneke could be a surprise nominee tomorrow (Check final prediction list in a few hours), and Amour as well. I feel so uncertain about these nominees due to the rushed schedule, and the fact that there are too many potentials. But I am confident of at least 7 of these so that's just the best it is going to have to be.

Best Actor
Bradley Cooper "Silver Linings Playbook"
Daniel Day-Lewis "Lincoln"
John Hawkes "The Sessions"
Hugh Jackman "Les Miserables"
Denzel Washington "Flight"

Other Contenders - Joaquin Phoenix "The Master", Ben Affleck "Argo"

Commentary - I feel pretty safe about Day-Lewis and Jackman, and even Hawkes despite lack of BAFTA nod. Washington and Cooper are shaky. I am probably underestimating Phoenix, as a BAFTA nod showed that he is definitely still in this. But The Master seems so shaky, and Cooper got SAG and BAFTA, and Washington is well-liked. The last contender is one that emerged this morning. Ben Affleck is a lock for director, but watch out tomorrow morning to see if he pulls a Clint Eastwood and gets in here as well.

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain "Zero Dark Thirty"
Marion Cotillard "Rust & Bone"
Jennifer Lawrence "Silver Linings Playbook"
Helen Mirren "Hitchcock"
Emmanuelle Riva "Amour"

Other Contenders - Quvenzhane Wallis "Beasts of the Southern Wild", Naomi Watts "The Impossible"

Commentary - The battle between Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence will begin tomorrow night at the BFCA, but for now we need to think about who will join them. I have argued against Mirren, but she and Cotillard both got SAG and BAFTA, and it is hard to argue against that. So who gets the final slot. I think that Naomi Watts missing BAFTA is a big deal, and if Amour ends up being bigger tomorrow than expected watch for Emmanuelle Riva to join the list.

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin "Argo"
Robert DeNiro "Silver Linings Playbook",
Philip Seymour Hoffman "The Master"
Tommy Lee Jones "Lincoln"
Christoph Waltz "Django Unchained"

Other Contenders -  Javier Bardem "Skyfall", Leonardo Dicaprio "Django Unchained", Samuel L. Jackson "Django Unchained"

Commentary - Despite SAG and BAFTA, and the fact that he is Javier Bardem, I think that it seems too much for a James Bond villain to get nominated for an acting award. I hope I'm wrong, but I kind of get the feeling I am not. Arkin, Hoffman, and Jones are in. Waltz seems to be emerging from the Django pack, probably because he is clearly a co-lead to Jamie Foxx and is in practically the whole movie. Finally, I think that DeNiro has slipped a lot since his SAG nod, but that the Academy will like SLP enough to put him over the top.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams "The Master"
Sally Field "Lincoln"
Anne Hathaway "Les Miserables"
Helen Hunt "The Sessions"
Nicole Kidman "The Paperboy"

Other Contenders - Maggie Smith "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel", Judi Dench "Skyfall", Ann Dowd "Compliance"

Commentary - Field, Hunt, and Hathaway are in, and Adams getting the BAFTA may be enough in a weak and strange category. Smith got the SAG, and Dench the BAFTA, but neither seems to have enough heat. So despite my better judgment I am going with...yes...Nicole Kidman in The Paperboy. As ridiculous as it sounds, I kind of get the feeling she would have gotten in at BAFTA is the film had been eligible.

Best Cinematography
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi

Other Contenders - Argo, Anna Karenina, Zero Dark Thirty

1 comment:

  1. I think Ann Dowd could be a surprise nominee. I really hope she is, she was amazing on "Compliance".