Will Win - Modern Family
Should Win - Modern Family or Big Bang Theory
Could Win - 30 Rock
Commentary - Since the SAG committee did not nominate two to TV's best ensembles (New Girl and Parks & Recreation), then the two that actually deserve to win are TV's biggest comedies: The Big Bang Theory or Modern Family. But let's not pretend like we don't all know what is going to happen. Modern Family will win in a walk, and my jaw will drop if it doesn't win. The only other one I think even has a shot is 30 Rock, which has nostalgia in its favor.
Will Win - Homeland
Should Win - Downton Abbey or Breaking Bad
Could Win - Boardwalk Empire or Downton Abbey
Commentary - Homeland is so popular, that I think that the SAG voters are willing to overlook the better ensembles for the better series. But watch out for two contenders to overtake them. The first is Boardwalk Empire which has won two years in a row, as it is chocked full popular character actors. The other is Downton Abbey, which is probably the best show on television in terms of working its sprawling cast into each storyline, and giving each character the treatment he/she deserves. That being said, it is going to be hard to overtake Homeland.