Sunday, January 13, 2013

Golden Globe Film Winner Predictions

Best Picture - Drama
Will Win/Should Win - Lincoln
Could Win - Argo
Commentary - Just because the Academy's director's branch failed to nomiante Ben Affleck, it does not mean that Argo is any less beloved around Hollywood. That being said, I feel like Lincoln will end up taking the prize as its momentum grows, and the HFPA and Dreamworks connection. But if Argo wins here, and continues to win as the season goes on, it will continue to defy its director snub, and could still win the Oscar.

Best Picture - Comedy/Musical
Will Win - Les Miserables
Could Win/Should Win - Silver Linings Playbook
Commentary - With the Weinstein machine behind it, Silver Linings Playbook is definitely in the mix. But The HFPA loves its musicals, and Les Miserables is the biggest one they have had in a long time. Expect it to take the prize.

Best Actor - Drama
Will Win/Should Win - Daniel Day-Lewis "Lincoln"
Could Win - Denzel Washington "Flight"
Commentary - If anyone other than Day-Lewis wins, I will be shocked.

Best Actress - Drama
Will Win/Should Win - Jessica Chastain "Zero Dark Thirty"
Could Win - Marion Cotillard "Rust & Bone"
Commentary - Marion Cotillard may have missed the Oscar nod, but the HFPA is fond of her, and she brings international credentials. That being said, Chastain is the rising star, and in a Best Picture nominee, and will most likely claim the prize.

Best Actor - Comedy/Musical
Will Win - Hugh Jackman "Les Miserables"
Could Win - Bradley Cooper "Silver Linings Playbook"
Should Win - Jack Black "Bernie"
Commentary - I would love to see Jack Black win the Globe for his turn in Bernie, but this is a close horse race between two Oscar nominees: Bradley Cooper and Hugh Jackman. I feel like Jackman's emotional performance will be more appealing than Coopers, but both films are popular, and either one could win.

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win - Philip Seymour Hoffman "The Master"
Could Win- Tommy Lee Jones "Lincoln" or Leonardo Dicaprio "Django Unchained"
Should Win - Dicaprio or Jones
Commentary - I think that the Django boys will split votes, as will the two veterans in Arkin and Jones, and someone like Hoffman, whose presence in this race is one that seems to stand out, begins a march to Oscar with a surprise Golden Globe win.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win/Should Win - Anne Hathaway "Les Miserables"
Could Win - Sally Field "Lincoln"
Commentary - In her march to the Oscar, the only person I think that can stop her is the great Sally Field who nailed Mary Todd Lincoln. But Hathaway was stunning, and deserves to win really, and I think she will continue her march to Oscar tonight.

Best Director
Will Win/Should Win - Steven Spielberg "Lincoln"
Could Win - Ben Affleck "Argo"
Commentary - Once again, if HFPA loves Argo, then Oscars be damned! I think though if Lincoln wins Picture, then Spielberg is probably the frontrunner in this category as well.

Best Screenplay
Will Win/Should Win - Tony Kushner "Lincoln"
Could Win - David O. Russell "Silver Linings Playbook" or Quentin Tarantino "Django Unchained" or Chris Terrio "Argo"
Commentary - Really any of these scribes could win, but I get the feeling that this year's Adapted Screenplay race is like that of 2010's where Aaron Sorkin was a shoo-in despite the film's shaky Best Picture chances. The prize for Best Picture is definitely a toss-up but just about everyone agrees that the difficulty and skill it took to adapt Doris Kearns Goodwin's Team of Rivals is awards-worthy.

Best Animated Feature
Will Win - Frankenweenie
Could Win - Wreck-It Ralph
Should Win - Either one.
Commentary - We have two really great animated films fighting it out this year, and while Wreck-It Ralph was the success story, the HFPA have rewarded Burton films in the past, and the funny and charming Frankenweenie might just be his ticket to winning an award for himself.

Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win/Should - Amour
Could Win - The Intouchables
Commentary - I have finally caught up with Michael Haneke's Amour, and it is a stunning film with two incredible performances (I am now rooting for either Wallis or Riva to win the Oscar). But watch out for the very popular Intouchables, who was shockingly left off the Oscar five.

Best Original Score
Will Win/Should Win - John Williams "Lincoln"
Could Win - Mychael Danna "Life of Pi" or Alexandre Desplat "Argo"
Commentary - Williams is the legend, and won the Critics Choice Awards. I honestly don't know what's going to happen in this category, and the Globes are not always great at predicting repeats. So I'll stick with the obvious, but expect a surprise.

Best Original Song
Will Win/Should Win - Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth for "Skyfall" from Skyfall
Could Win - Not Running Anymore or Safe and Sound.
Commentary - The Globes always choose a popular artist over the quality of the song, so either Taylor Swift, Jon Bon Jovi, or Adele is going to win. My money is on Adele, which also happens to be the best of the bunch.

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