Will Win - Jonathan Banks "Better Call Saul"
Could Win - Ben Mendelsohn "Bloodline", Peter Dinklage "Game of Thrones", or Michael Kelly "House of Cards"
Should Win - Alan Cumming "The Good Wife"
Commentary - Since Better Call Saul premiered, it has seem like a destiny that Jonathan Banks was going to win this award, and at this point, it still feels like the best choice. He is a beloved veteran actor, expanded his character from Breaking Bad, and had a knockout episode. But as the season has gone on, it has become clear that he is not a slam dunk winner. Ben Mendelsohn managed to get in even though voters are clearly not in love with, and he, like Kyle Chandler in the lead category, submitted well. Peter Dinklage is always a threat for Game of Thrones, especially after he snagged that surprise win a couple of years ago. He has a good episode, especially for a Thrones actor (none of them have enough scenes usually). But he has lost for better episodes. Finally, Michael Kelly finally nabs a nomination for House of Cards, with a knockout episode. But House of Cards has slipped a lot, and there is still a lot of subtlety to his performance. Although there is one branch that is still on the bandwagon, and it is the acting branch. He is the real wild card here, and the one I am really watching. But in the end, I still think this is Jonathan Banks to lose, and I don't think he will.