Will Win - Jeffrey Tambor "Transparent"
Could Win - Anthony Anderson "black-ish", Will Forte "The Last Man on Earth", or William H. Macy "Shameless"
Should Win - Anthony Anderson "black-ish" or Jeffrey Tambor "Transparent"
Commentary - I think we can rule Don Cheadle, Matt LeBlanc, and Louis C.K. off right at the top. They have all been nominated continuously, and to no avail. Noneof them have either the heat of popularity, or the episode to pull off a win, and I would be jaw-dropped if they did (although after Margo Martindale's win for The Americans, anything is possible). William H. Macy won the SAG Award back in January and is a beloved character actor. Also Joan Cusack just won for Shameless, proving that there are voters out there that like that show. If they were going for funny, and if they actually watch some of the tapes, then Will Forte and Anthony Anderson would definitely be in the running, and should be. Both are commanding on screen in their episodes, anchor new sitcoms that both got picked up for a second season, and are really funny, this is a comedy award, remember? But I don't think that funny matters as much this year, and with the popular vote seemingly playing a more important role, I think that this is Jeffrey Tambor's to lose. Don't get me wrong, his episode is fantastic, and it is truly a remarkable performance. And in the past, under the old system, more dramatic performances like Toni Collette and Edie Falco have managed to win. But he is just not funny, and that is the one thing that gives me hesitation here. But there are simply too many factors working in his favor. He already has several pieces of hardware for this performance, he is a beloved television veteran with seven career nominations, and no wins, and of the bunch, his show is clearly the most popular, and is one of the front runners for the Best Comedy Series prize. It is his to lose.