Will Win - Uzo Aduba "Orange is the New Black"
Could Win - Lena Heady "Game of Thrones", Christina Hendricks "Mad Men", or Christine Baranski "The Good Wife"
Should Win - Lorraine Toussaint "Orange is the New Black" (oh wait!) Among the Six - Christine Baranski "The Good Wife"
Commentary - Let's first take a moment to move past the fact that Lorraine Toussaint was snubbed, and move on to the six lucky actresses who did make it. I don't see Joanne Froggatt winning this year. Her episode last year was much better, and the Downton Abbey Emmy train has slowed tremendously. Emilia Clarke's character is so popular, and if the popular vote means anything, she has a much better shot than I think. But if any of these voters actually watch her episode, she is definitely near the bottom of the group. I think this is really between four actress. Lean Heady was my initial choice, but her episode, while having a couple of great scenes, simply does not have enough of her. That being said, she has had a great couple of seasons on Game of Thrones, and if it does as well as I think it will, she could be brought along with the show. Christine Baranski is a double nominee this year, with a great episode. But she has been passed over so many times, there are better episodes out there, and I think she might win on the Comedy side. With The Good Wife dropping as much as it did this season in terms of overall support, I just don't see a win this year for her. Christina Hendricks has a great episode, and if the voters are nostalgic for Mad Men, maybe this is the year she pulls it off. But, I think this is Uzo Aduba's to lose. She won last year, was the SAG winner, and the only Orange female cast member to make the move over to drama, which is really a feat considering that five were nominated last year on the comedy side. She is so popular with these voters as a person, and has a great episode. For me, she wins on either type of voting. If episodes still matter, I think she wins. If the popular vote matters more with the expanded voting, I think she wins. This, like a lot of these races this year, is a tough vote, and it really could go any which way. But I personally think she is the strongest candidate of the bunch.