Will Win - Veep
Could Win - Transparent or Modern Family
Should Win - Parks & Recreation
Commentary - A three-way race has emerged, and it seems to be tightening as we get closer to the finish line. Modern Family could make history, and while most people are not predicting it, don't count it out. Yes, it is now down to just Burrell and Bowen in terms of the casting nods, and it finally missed the cut for directing (a real shocked considering the Connection Lost episode felt like a perfect fit for these directors). But it is so beloved, and the other options have either been passed over before or are not funny. But I really don't see Modern Family taking it again, the support is clearly gone, and in its place is clearly tons of support for two other options. Transparent did well at the Creative Arts Emmys, and is the critical favorite of the bunch. It had the most nominations of the seven total, and support in key categories. But here is the caveat: it's not funny. It's a great show, a groundbreaking drama with fantastic performances, but it is not a comedy, not really. Bradley Whitford won last week, probably because of his personal popularity, and because he is one of the few performances that inspired laughs (like Uzo Aduba last year for Orange). Other than Ally McBeal, which was a heck of a lot funnier than Transparent, this category has gone to big, funny shows, with large casts and lots of laughs as of late (consider some of the recent winners over the last 15 years or so: Modern Family, 30 Rock, The Office, Everybody Loves Raymond, Arrested Development, Friends, Sex and the City, and Will & Grace). If I were picking based on that criteria, it would be for Parks & Recreation, who managed a surprising and wonderful nomination for its final season. It has been one of the best, if not the best, comedies on television the last decade, and the fact that it has only gotten in here twice, and never won, is a true travesty. But this seems like Veep's to lose, and it also brings back Modern Family into the conversation. Veep has been steadily gaining in terms of total nominations, and has finally won its first Creative Art Emmy this year for casting, in its fourth season with little turnover (impressive). It once again broke its nomination total, all three acting nods have a good shot at winning, as well as its nominated writers and directors, and honestly, it just feels likes it's its time. That is not a cogent argument, but the buzz seems to favor it, they love political shows, and it is definitely the funnier of the two front runners. Remember, this is a comedy category.