Could Win - Pablo Schreiber "Orange is the New Black", Michael J. Fox "The Good Wife", or Alan Alda "The Blacklist"
Should Win - Beau Bridges "Masters of Sex"
Commentary - This is a particularly weak year for this category, not because of the actors, but because none of them really have knock-em-dead material. Pablo Schreiber is memorable and funny, but funny doesn't work a lot for drama categories, and he is barely in his episode. Plus, of the bunch, he is the least known entity, and remember that the popular vote will play more heavily this year than in the past. Michael J. Fox is always in play, but this was his weakest episode to date, and voters have clearly moved on from The Good Wife after a bit of a resurgence last season. Alan Alda is higher up, I think, than most people are putting him. He wins these things a lot, has a lot more screen time than most of these guys here, and (spoiler alert) dies at the end of the episode. Finally, I am so sad to see that neither Reg E. Cathey and F. Murray Abraham had great episodes, because both are great actors with great characters. I think that this is Beau Bridges' to lose. He tries to kill himself, he cries, he goes through medical treatment, and he really is the star of the show. He gets nominated all the time, but this is the first time in a long time that he really does have the episode to win again. Plus, in terms of popularity, no one, maybe besides Alda, is as beloved by these voters as Beau Bridges.