Friday, July 18, 2014

The Oscar Narrative: July Nomination Predictions - Best Supporting Actress

2014 Nomination Predictions
Emily Blunt "Into the Woods"
Carrie Coon "Gone Girl"
Viola Davis "Get on Up"
Jennifer Garner "Men, Women & Children"
Anna Kendrick "Into the Woods"

Other Contenders - Judy Greer "Men, Women, & Children", Jessica Chastain "Interstellar", Anne Hathaway "Interstellar", Felicity Jones "Theory of Everything", Kristin Scott Thomas "Suite Francaise", Octavia Spencer "Get On Up", Reese Witherspoon "Inherent Vice", Robin Wright "A Most Wanted Man", Emma Stone "Birdman", Patricia Arquette "Boyhood", Oprah Winfrey "Selma", Kiera Knightley "The Imitation Game", Sigourney Weaver "Exodus: Gods and Kings", Rosemund Pike "Gone Girl", Julianne Moore "Maps to the Stars", Meryl Streep "Into the Woods", Shohreh Aghdashloo "Rosewater", Cameron Diaz "Annie", Jessica Lange "The Gambler", Brie Larson "The Gambler", Vanessa Redgrave "Foxcatcher", Kelly Reilly "Cavalry", Noomi Rapace "Child 44", Laura Dern "Wild", Vera Farmiga "The Judge", Krysten Ritter "Big Eyes", Lesley Manville "Mr. Turner", Lily Rabe "Pawn Sacrifice", Jane Fonda "This is Where I Leave You", Imogen Poots "Knight of Cups", Maya Rudolph "Inherent Vice", Rosemarie DeWitt "Kill the Messenger"

Commentary - This category is, as always in a bit of flux. Where will the likes of Meryl Streep (we assume she will be campaigned as lead), Julianne Moore, and Rosemund Pike end up? I assume they are all leads. Just like I am currently assuming that Emily Blunt is supporting, although she could jump up and be a co-lead with Streep. Speaking of Blunt, this category has a history of rewarding two nominees from the same film, so she and her co-star Anna Kendrick could both be heading to nominations, if their roles end up being as baity as their stage counterparts, and most importantly, if Rob Marshall does Chicago and not Nine. Viola Davis looks fantastic in Get On Up, and it is just the sort of big scene-stealing role that wins people Oscars. Plus she is still owed one from a couple of years ago. Her nomination all depends on the reception to the film as a whole. Biopics do well at the Oscars, when they turn out great. I think that Jason Reitman's adaptation of Men, Women & Children could be a real return to form, and lets not forget that when the Academy likes his film, acting nominations follow. I think that of the bunch Jennifer Garner is the most poised to get a nomination, simply based on her popularity and recent appearances in well-liked films including last year's Dallas Buyers Club. But Judy Greer as rapidly risen from unknown sidekick, to respected actress, and she has the real potential to steal scenes, and a spot from her co-star. Finally, this category is always ripe for a new star or character actress to pop up. If Rosemund Pike goes lead, that paves the way for Carrie Coon. For those who have read the book, they say that Coon could have a lot of great material to really breakthrough. Beyond these five, look out for the likes of Jessica Chastain and Anne Hathaway for Christopher Nolan's latest. Kristin Scott Thomas is getting plenty of early buzz for her role in Suite Francaise. Oprah missed out last year for The Butler, but Selma could end up being a huge contender, and the whole "snubbed" or "overdue" factor could play in her favor. Reese Witherspoon is more likely to get attention for Wild, but Inherent Vice could end up being the bigger player. Robin Wright is the front runner to win the Emmy this year, but could also finally score an Oscar nod for the adaptation of John Le Carre's A Most Wanted Man". Birdman looks to be an interesting contender, and Emma Stone, who has several big roles this year, could benefit from its successes. Patricia Arquette is getting rave reviews for Boyhood. If Academy voters embrace the film, she and her co-stars could see some love. Octavia Spencer could join her co-star for Get On Up depending on the size of the role. Also in play are the likes of Felicity Jones, Sigourney Weaver, Kiera Knightley, Kelly Reilly, Krysten Ritter, Vera Farmiga, Lesley Manville, and countless others.

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