Will Win - Allison Tolman "Fargo"
Should Win - Allison Tolman "Fargo"
Could Win - Julia Roberts "The Normal Heart", Ellen Burstyn "Flowers in the Attic", or Kathy Bates "American Horror Story: Coven"
Commentary - This is one of the most brutal races to predict, and honestly, any of these women could win this award, they are all that damn good. We can probably count out Frances Conroy based on screen time alone. And while I personally loved Angela Bassett in Coven, she doesn't get quite the material that her co-star Kathy Bates does. If any of the Coven women are going to win, it is going to be Bates, who has the best material of the bunch. Many people are predicting Julia Roberts to win, and honestly, I was up until today. She is in The Normal Heart, which looks to really sweep this year's Emmys, and she is an Oscar-winning icon that does not jump down to television often. We know that Emmy voters love their movie stars, and after her triumphant return to the screen, and the Oscar fold with August: Osage County, she is certainly on voters' minds. But to be honest, while his perfectly fine in The Normal Heart, it is nothing special, and certainly no where near her finest work. Ellen Burstyn is the wild card here. She won last year (robbing the great Sarah Paulson!) and could easily repeat, because she is simply delicious in Flowers in the Attic. The production as a whole was nothing to sneeze at it, but damn she lit up the screen every time she was on it. But I am going on a bit of limb here, with the newcomer in the bunch. Allison Tolman was the heart and soul of Fargo, and while she is subtle, something that usually hurts you in Emmy races, I think that there are enough Fargo fans out there, to recognize how important she was to the series. Plus, I feel like these titans of acting with chewy material (Bassett, Bates, Roberts, Burstyn), could cancel out each others votes. Tolman stands to gain from this split, and I think she wins her first, and well deserved, Emmy Award.