Will Win - Matt Bomer "The Normal Heart"
Could Win - Joe Mantello "The Normal Heart", Colin Hanks "Fargo", or Martin Freeman "Sherlock: His Last Vow"
Should Win - Matt Bomer "The Normal Heart"
Commentary - There are a lot of big contenders in this race, and yet it already feels like a slam dunk. Joe Mantello, Jim Parsons, and Alfred Molina are all great in The Normal Heart, but they all pale in comparison to one of their co-stars. Colin Hanks was a part of the dynamic duo (along with the fantastic Allison Tolman) that provided Fargo a dose of much needed heart. Martin Freeman could win here as a consolation prize for his two nominated roles in both Sherlock, and his lead role in Fargo. But in the end, I just don't see how voters can watch these nominees work, and not become overwhelmed by Matt Bomer's character in The Normal Heart. His struggle is part of the emotional impact of the film, and he really stretched himself as an actor and proved his talent in a role that may the role that really launches his career into the stratosphere. Even if it doesn't, at least he will have an Emmy on his mantle.