2014 Nomination Predictions
The Big Bang Theory
Orange is the New Black
Other Contenders - Brooklyn Nine-Nine, Silicon Valley, Parks and Recreation, The Mindy Project, Glee, Shameless, New Girl, Mom, Nurse Jackie, How I Met Your Mother, About a Boy, Looking, The Goldbergs, Community, House of Lies, Episodes, Broad City, The Millers, Mike & Molly, Two and a Half Men
Commentary - Can anybody dethrone Modern Family? It had such a great season, and while last year's Emmys (despite a win in Comedy Series), show a fatigue for the show, I think that it could easily tie the record for five in a row. Of the remaining contenders, I think Louie is out. It is a certain nominee, but it is just not the type of show that Emmy voters reward in this category, and this season seemed darker, and less funny (brilliant but less funny), than previous season, and there are too many outwardly funny shows ahead of it. And while Orange is the New Black is the shiny new toy, I think that its dramatic vibe also hurts it from actually winning. Let's remind ourselves that many of these types of shows (Nurse Jackie, Desperate Housewives, even Girls and Louie) have been nominated before, and they have yet to beat the more obvious choice. Speaking of Girls, it is sitting in an extremely shaky sixth place. It actually had a much better season, but I just think there are too many other shows for it to be a solid nominee. I think that if any shows can beat Modern Family, they are the same ones from last year: The Big Bang Theory and Veep. The key to their potential upset here is getting into either writing or directing. The fact that neither has done so is kind of surprising. But if they can manage it this year (no 30 Rock or Office to knock it out), then maybe one of them can break through. I am this close to replacing Girls with Brooklyn Nine-Nine. It won the Globe, and has a lot of potential nominations on the horizon. I just wonder if voters will see it as too silly next to some of the more dramatic contenders like Orange is the New Black and Girls. Silicon Valley has a lot of supporters, but I think it may crossover too many Big Bang voters, and may be a bit too dry and cynical for a lot a older members. Parks and Rec, The Mindy Project, Glee, Shameless, Mom, Nurse Jackie, and others are always threats, but they are truly on the outside looking in at seven or eight stronger choices.