2014 Nomination Predictions
Josh Charles "The Good Wife"
Peter Dinklage "Game of Thrones"
Dean Norris "Breaking Bad"
Mandy Patinkin "Homeland"
Aaron Paul "Breaking Bad"
Jon Voight "Ray Donovan"
Other Contenders - Jim Carter "Downton Abbey", Jeffrey Wright "Boardwalk Empire", John Slattery "Mad Men", Noah Emmerich "The Americans", Tony Goldwyn "Scandal", Peter Saarsgard "The Killing", Charles Dance "Game of Thrones", Nicolaj Coster-Waldau "Game of Thrones", Kit Harrington "Game of Thrones", Brendan Coyle "Downton Abbey", Allen Leech "Downton Abbey", Walton Goggins "Justified", Michael Kelly "House of Cards", Sam Waterston "The Newsroom", Rupert Friend "Homeland"
Commentary - This looks like an eight-way race for six slots, with about a dozen guys looking to be a dark horse contender. For now, I am leaving Jim Carter on the outside looking in, but even as I am typing this, I am regretting it. He has surprised the last two years, and this year, especially in the beginning of the season (which voters are more likely to have seen), he had an incredible amount of material to work with. The question is, who get's left off? Of my predictions Josh Charles is probably the shakiest. His story line on The Good Wife this season added a shock factor and contributed to probably what has been the show's best year. So he should get nominated, but it really all hinges on whether The Good Wife has charmed Emmy voters this season the way that it has charmed critics and viewers. Mandy Patinkin could also be in trouble. I think Homeland will significantly dip in nominations, and it may even miss out on Drama Series. But I think the series still has enough support (if the guild awards earlier this year are evidence) to get at least a few key nominations. Patinkin is a veteran Emmy winner, and this season was practically the lead on Homeland. I think he is safe for now. Jon Voight is one of those nominations that I really wish wouldn't happen, but I'm not stupid enough to leave him off. He is an Oscar-winning acting legend, and is in on his name recognition alone. Breaking Bad has managed to get another guy in here for the last two season, and while I think Dean Norris is not as stable as Jonathan Banks and Giancarlo Esposito before him, he will most likely benefit from the final season's buzz. So who is on the outside looking in? Besides Carter, the next biggest threat is Jeffrey Wright for Boardwalk Empire. With Bobby Cannavale's win last year (plus the handful of Creative Arts wins), it is clear that there is still love for Boardwalk within the industry. And like Cannavale, Jeffrey Wright is a well-liked television actor with an Emmy on his mantel. Don't be surprised if he sneaks in. Noah Emmerich is another threat, but like Charles, it all depends on whether there is enough love for The Americans, which has been gaining Emmy attention from experts who feel like the voters are finally coming around to the show after virtually snubbing it last year. Tony Goldwyn could benefit from Scandal's buzz, Peter Saarsgard was so damn good on The Killing this year, he could overcome the fact that most people gave up on it after season one, and the Game of Thrones guys are always looking to pull a Breaking Bad and get more than one guy in the race. In the end though, I think this race comes down to two previous winners. Aaron Paul has won twice, and like the rest of the cast this year, the last set of episodes have so much incredible material that I think he could easily take home a third. But he will face a steep climb against Peter Dinklage, who had probably his best season on Game of Thrones. It will be a fight to the finish.