Sunday, October 7, 2012

State of the Race: October Oscar Predictions - Best Supporting Actor

October Predictions
Alan Arkin "Argo"
Leonardo DiCaprio "Django Unchained"
Robert DeNiro "Silver Linings Playbook"
Philip Seymour Hoffman "The Master"
Tommy Lee Jones "Lincoln"

Other Contenders - Dwight Henry "Beasts of the Southern Wild", John Goodman "Argo", Bryan Cranston "Argo", Hal Holbrook "Promised Land", Hal Holbrook "Lincoln", David Strathairn "Lincoln", Matthew McConaughey "Magic Mike", Russell Crowe "Les Miserables", Michael Pena "End of Watch", William H. Macy "The Sessions", Ewan McGregor "The Impossible", Ezra Miller "The Perks of Being a Wallflower", Ifran Kahn "Life of Pi", James Gandolfini "Killing Them Softly", Tom Wilkinson "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel", Jim Broadbent "Cloud Atlas", Joseph Gordon-Levitt "Lincoln", Ian McKellen "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey", Christoph Waltz "Django Unchained", Woody Harrelson "Seven Psychopaths", Jared Harris "Lincoln"

Commentary - Unlike its Supporting Actress counterpart, Supporting Actor is a stacked race with lots of veteran contenders battling it out (as of now I am predicting four previous winners and a previous mutiple nominee). In some cases, there are multiple possibilites from the same film, so we'll have to work out which contenders are the strongest from each, specifically Argo and Lincoln. With Argo, Arkin has gotten probably the best buzz, although Goodman and Cranston are certaintly possibilities. With Lincoln, the trailer shows a lot of Tommy Lee Jones, and less of David Strathairn, which makes me believe that Jones' is the meatier role. Philip Seymour Hoffman is probably the leading contender at the moment, because his semi-lead status and masterful performance in The Master are both huge boosts, and he is an Academy favorite. Robert DeNiro hasn't been in the race in a while, but he apparently is a scene-stealer in one of the biggest contenders Silver Linings Playbook. Finally, the mystery around Django Unchained remains, but I still get the feeling that DiCaprio will be a hit, and a nominee. Dwight Henry, Hal Holbrook, Matthew McConaughey, Ifran Kahn, Ewan McGregor, and William H. Macy are big contenders looking to break the top five. And Russell Crowe is probably the biggest name missing from the top five, but somehow it looks like Jackman and Hathaway are bigger roles, and in this competitive year he is going to have to knock it out of the park.

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