American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Other Contenders - The Color Purple, Saltburn, All of Us Strangers, NYAD, Rustin, Napoleon, Air, Ferrari, May December, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Boy and the Heron
Commentary - The PGA ten have been my ten for a while now, and that kind of scares me. I know that there is a very good chance that at least one, maybe two of these will miss out. But what two? Right now it looks like Past Lives is the weakest based on the precursors. When you look at the combination of PGA, DGA, SAG, BAFTA, and the craft guilds, you have American Fiction, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things are really strong. That leaves three slots. I think that both Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest have done well enough to make the cut. Past Lives only has the PGA, and a few other things here and there. But not a lot of contenders are strong enough beyond those ten. However, with ten nominations, there always was a surprise. The Color Purple's SAG Ensemble nod makes it a clear alternative in the tenth slot. But watch out for Saltburn (got some Globe, BAFTA, and Critics Choice love), All of Us Strangers (BAFTA love), NYAD and Rustin (Both could have acting nods, and Netflix means a lot of people have seen it), May December (a critical favorite), Air (Golden Globe nod), Ferrai (some technical nods and Cruz are possible), Napoleon (lot of tech love), and Across the Spider-Verse and The Boy and the Heron (could big animated films cross over like in the past?).
Best Director
Justine Triet "Anatomy of a Fall"
Alexander Payne "The Holdovers"
Martin Scorsese "Killers of the Flower Moon"
Christopher Nolan "Oppenheimer"
Yorgos Lanthimos "Poor Things"
Other Contenders - Jonathan Glazer "The Zone of Interest", Greta Gerwig "Barbie", Bradley Cooper "Maestro", Andrew Haigh "All of Us Strangers", Celine Song "Past Lives",
Commentary - Only Christopher Nolan is safe. That is how crazy this directors race has been. The DGA five are the strongest contenders for Best Picture, but BAFTA threw some curveballs (like missing Lanthimos and Scorsese), which has us wondering if the European and international vote in the Director's Branch is really going to go its own way this year. So, someone is going to go 5/5 and most of us might go 2/5. Payne got in for Nebraska, and is clearly a favorite. He is also the only one besides Nolan to get DGA and PGA. I don't see the American Academy snubbing Martin Scorsese, but the BAFTA snub is a pause. The same goes for Yorgos Lanthimos. Both have films that are such big conteners across the board, and both are directors favorites. I think they both get in, but I really thought Lanthimos was getting BAFTA, so he is really vulnerable. The last slot should go to Greta Gerwig, But I am going a different direction. I had Jonathan Glazer for a long time, but when his film missed at BAFAT for Best Film, in favor of Anatomy of a Fall, I moved Justine Triet in. I think that film is stronger overall, and it still fills their slot for a foreign language film. I am probably wrong, but so will most people after tomorrow morning.
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