Cord Jefferson "American Fiction"
Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach "Barbie"
Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese "Killers of the Flower Moon"
Christopher Nolan "Oppenheimer"
Tony McNamara "Poor Things"
Other Contenders - Jonathan Glazer "The Zone of Interest", Andrew Haigh "All of Us Strangers", Ava DuVernay "Origin", Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, and Dave Callaham "Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse"
Commentary - Barbie really threw this race for a loop. I think it definitely gets in, and while some people are mad it got moved, some are elated. That's how that works. American Fiction, Poor Things, and Oppenheimer feel locked as well. Killers of the Flower Moon missed out at BAFTA, and I think it exposed that it is not as big of a contender as we thought. But then again, it has swept the American guild awards. So I am keeping it in, but The Zone of Interest and All of Us Strangers, both BAFTA nods, could easily take its place.
Best Original Screenplay
Justine Triet and Arthur Harari "Anatomy of a Fall"
David Hemingson "The Holdovers"
Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer "Maestro"
Celine Song "Past Lives"
Emerald Fennell "Saltburn"
Other Contenders - Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik "May December", Alex Convery "Air"
Commentary - I feel good about Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, and Past Lives, and probably the Oscar is between them in an interest race that no longer includes Barbie. The last two slots I am not so sure. I am going with Maestro (BAFTA Nod), and Saltburn, despite a BAFTA snub. May December is getting a lot of attention from pundits, but am I the only one that has seen that film's Oscar stock just collapse in recent weeks? If any group is going to reward it, count on the writers, but I just wonder if this film has fallen off the radar. I'm probably wrong. But I have heard that Saltburn might be a favorite among the writers branch through some pundits I trust, so I am going out on a limb.
Best Animated Feature
The Boy and the Heron
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Elemental
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Other Contenders - Nimona, Suzume, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Wish, Robot Dreams
Commentary - The Boy and the Heron and Across the Spider-Verse will duke it out for the win. Elemental has done well except for the Annies, which is concerning. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles doesn't feel like an Academy choice, but it has done relatively well. I moved Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget in after BAFTA went for it, and the Brits have nominated a lot of eventual nominees. But Nimona and Suzume are strong, Wish is Disney, The Super Mario Bros is popular, and Robot Dreams is an indie upset potential. This could end up being one of the most interesting categories to watch.
Best Documentary Feature
20 Days in Mariupol
American Symphony
Beyond Utopia
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
Other Contenders - Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy, To Kill a Tiger, Apolonia Apolonia, Stamped from the Beginning, 32 Sounds, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project
Commentary - This race is really up in the air this year. The Critics have unanimously gone for Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie. These voters are picky, and its popularity and television awards could spell doom for it here. Beyond Utopia has hit all the marks, as has 20 Days in Mariupol, and both are really timely. Four Daughters has done well, and got in here and International Feature short lists (So did 20 Days in Mariupol showcasing broader support). Finally, I think the power of The Eternal Memory will win over voters. Desperate Souls, To Kill a Tiger, Apolonia Apolonia, Stamped, 32 Sounds, Bobi Wine, and Going to Mars have all hit marks along the way, which means that surprises are coming.
Best International Feature
20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)
Fallen Leaves (Finland)
Society of the Snow (Spain)
The Taste of Things (France)
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
Other Contenders - The Teacher's Lounge (Germany), Perfect Days (Japan), The Monk and the Gun (Bhutan), Io capitano (Italy), The Mother of All Lies (Morocco), Totem (Mexico), Amerikatsi (Armenia), Godland (Iceland), Four Daughters (Tunisia)
Commentary - The Zone of Interest is the only lock, and is easily the front runner without The Anatomy of a Fall in the mix. Society of the Snow on Netflix has a lot of buzz and is set to get several technical nods. 20 Days in Mariupol could join the new trend of a double nominee for Doc feature and International Feature. Plus it is super relevant. I had The Teacher's Lounge, but overall, the pundits seem to be landing on The Taste of Things and Fallen Leaves, but this is a tight race. I see upsets everywhere as potentials. Perfect Days, Totem, The Monk and the Fun, Io capitano, The Mother of All Lies, Four Daughters, and particularly Amerikatsi all have a narrative that could upset the apple cart.
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