Will Win - Late Show with Stephen Colbert
Could Win - Late Night with Seth Meyers or The Daily Show with Trevor Noah
Should Win - Late Show with Stephen Colbert or The Daily Show with Trevor Noah
Commentary - I think this is a three-way battle. Stephen Colbert is a huge Emmy magnet, so I am predicting he wins. But Seth Meyers has gained traction in recent years, and this is the last time to honor Trevor Noah's stint on The Daily Show. Without John Oliver in this race, it feels competitive for the first time in awhile.
Best Variety Scripted Series
Will Win - Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
Could Win - Saturday Night Live or A Black Lady Sketch Show
Should Win - A Black Lady Sketch Show
Commentary - The Emmys really cannot get these categories right. Just move the two together and expand the number of nominees like you did in Drama and Comedy Series. Now two sketch series are up against the Emmy juggernaut, who will continue to reign supreme. This really sucks because this is the last time to reward A Black Lady Sketch Show, who should be winning here.
Best Variety Special Live
Will Win - Elton John Live: Farewell from Dodger Stadium
Could Win - The Oscars or The Tonys
Should Win - Elton John Live: Farewell from Dodger Stadium
Commentary - The classic awards shows could prevail, but I think the nostalgia, and the novelty of Elton John's last concert will win the day. Plus, if he wins Elton John joins the EGOT club! That is why I am rooting for it.
Best Variety Special Recorded
Will Win - Carol Burnett: 90 Years of Laughter + Love
Could Win - John Mulaney: Baby J or Norman Lear: 100 Years of Music and Laughter
Should Win - Carol Burnett: 90 Years of Laughter + Love
Commentary - I know how this sounds. But if Norman Lear had died during the voting period, it might have helped him in this category. That is so cynical, but that's how these things work. John Mulaney could win, as he recently won an Emmy. But I think the magic of the Carol Burnett special will win over voters, plus it was a magical evening.
Best Directing in a Variety Series
Will Win - Liz Patrick "Saturday Night Live - Co-Hosts: Steve Martin & Martin Short"
Could Win - Paul Pennolino "Last Week Tonight with John Oliver - Afghanistan"
Should Win - Liz Patrick "Saturday Night Live - Co-Hosts: Steve Martin & Martin Short"
Commentary - A Black Lady Sketch Show won last year in a well-deserved upset. This year we are back to the usual suspects. Plus the SNL episode with Steve Martin and Martin Short was one of the better ones this year.
Best Writing in a Variety Series
Will Win - Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
Could Win - Late Night with Seth Meyers, Late Show with Stephen Colbert
Should Win - Late Show with Stephen Colbert
Commentary - When something else wins, I'll predict something different.
Best Directing in a Variety Special
Will Win - Paul Miller "Carol Burnett: 90 Years Of Laughter + Love"
Could Win - The Oscars, The Apple Music Super Bowl LVII Halftime Show Starring Rihanna, Chris Rock: Selective Outrage
Should Win - Paul Miller "Carol Burnett: 90 Years Of Laughter + Love"
Commentary - In a weird twist of fate, this category has shied away in recent years from big live events like The Oscars or the Super Bowl Halftime Show in favor of the specials. This, of course, will the year they do something different. But I am leaning towards the Carol Burnett special. Also watch out for Chris Rock's special.
Best Writing in a Variety Special
Will Win - John Mulaney "John Mulaney: Baby J"
Could Win - Chris Rock "Chris Rock: Selective Outrage"
Should Win - Wanda Sykes "Wanda Sykes: I’m An Entertainer"
Commentary - I personally would vote for Wanda Sykes, but I think that this is between John Mulaney and Chris Rock. Mulaney's special is easily the best of the two, but Rock could easily upset.
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