Best Actor
Bradley Cooper "Maestro"
Colman Domingo "Rustin"
Paul Giamatti "The Holdovers"
Cillian Murphy "Oppenheimer"
Jeffrey Wright "American Fiction"
Other Contenders - Barry Keoghan "Saltburn", Leonardo DiCaprio "Killers of the Flower Moon", Teo Yeo "Past Lives",
Commentary - SAG and BAFTA agreed on four of the five, with Cooper, Domingo, Giamatti, and Murphy all making the cut both times. Jeffrey Wright was the SAG fifth, and with its Ensemble nod, I think the American actors are higher on the film than the Brits. The one that intrigues me is Leonardo DiCaprio. He is such a favorite among these voters, but missing SAG and BAFTA shows a lot of weakness on is part. I also think Barry Keoghan is a real potential for an upset for Saltburn, which could overperform on Tuesday.
Best Actress
Lily Gladstone "Killers of the Flower Moon"
Sandra Huller "Anatomy of a Fall"
Carey Mulligan "Maestro"
Margot Robbie "Barbie"
Emma Stone "Poor Things"
Other Contenders - Annette Bening "NYAD", Fantastia Barrino "The Color Purple", Greta Lee "Past Lives"
Commentary - Lily Gladstone's omission at BAFTA is a shocker, but I still think she has enough support to get into the top five. The win however, is now a tossup. Three women, Emma Stone, Margot Robbie, and Carey Mulligan got both SAG and BAFTA, and I think are good to go. The final slot is probably between SAG nominee Annette Bening, and BAFTA nominees Sandra Huller and Fantasia Barrino. I think Huller is going to benefit from Anatomy of a Fall's huge haul of nominations on Tuesday morning and take the last slot. Also watch out for Greta Lee, she has a passionate base of support.
Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe "Poor Things"
Robert DeNiro "Killers of the Flower Moon"
Robert Downey Jr. "Oppenheimer"
Ryan Gosling "Barbie"
Dominic Sessa "The Holdovers"
Other Contenders - Sterling K. Brown "American Fiction", Mark Ruffalo "Poor Things", Paul Mescal "All of Us Strangers", Charles Melton "May December", Jacob Elordi "Saltburn"
Commentary - Probably one of the biggest tossup raises, only three guys, DeNiro, Downey Jr., and Gosling have SAG and BAFTA, and I think we are in for an interesting ride for those last two slots. Willem Dafoe got SAG and made the BAFTA longlists. He got in for At Eternity's Gate, voters in the acting branch clearly love him. I had Mark Ruffalo forever, but missing SAG and BAFTA (not even on the longlists), makes me pause. SAG went for Sterling K. Brown, my sixth slot and a real upset potential. Charles Melton was hot for a long time, but that film has dive bombed in the guilds. Jacob Elordi and Paul Mescal got BAFTA, so watch out. But I am going out on a limb for Dominic Sessa. After his BAFTA nod, and the film's rising stock, I think that voters are realizing it is hard to go for Giamatti and Randolph, and ignore the third of that terrific trio. It is a longshot, but I think it could happen.
Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt "Oppenheimer"
Danielle Brooks "The Color Purple"
Jodie Foster "NYAD"
Sandra Huller "The Zone of Interest"
Da'Vine Joy Randolph "The Holdovers"
Other Contenders - Penelope Cruz "Ferrari", Rosamund Pike "Saltburn", America Ferrera "Barbie", Claire Foy "All of Us Strangers", Taraji P. Henson "The Color Purple"
Commentary - Blunt, Brooks, and Randolph got BAFTA and SAG. Foster, up until BAFTA, had been going strong as well. I will stick with those four. The last slot? Cruz has surprised at the Oscars before, and does have SAG, but I'm not sure this one will cross over. Rosamund Pike has the Globes and BAFTA, and I'm intrigued by that combo. Ferrera has the Critics Choice, Henson is just a dark horse that can't be discounted, and Foy has BAFTA. I am going to predict a double nomination for Sandra Huller. The Zone of Interest is stronger than most of her competitors films, there is a lot of goodwill for her this year, and she did get a BAFTA nod. But it really is a toss-up.
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