Best Musical
Will Win - Hamilton
Could Win - Shuffle Along
Commentary - Duh!
Best Play
Will Win - The Humans
Could Win - Eclipsed
Commentary - Eclipsed is the little play that could, but Joe Mantello and Stephan Karam's The Humans is bolstered by a ton of buzz, will do well in other categories building towards a consensus, and received rave reviews. Plus, Stephen Karam is a rookie star on the rise, with a new show starting in October (A revival of The Cherry Orchard), and Joe Mantello is a legend. I think it easily wins this award.
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