Best Actor in a Musical
Will Win - Lin-Manuel Miranda "Hamilton"
Could Win - Leslie Odom "Hamilton" and Danny Burstein "Fiddler on the Roof"
Commentary - This is the toughest race of the night. Of the two Hamilton folks, it just seems like Miranda is in the lead. Reviews actually suggest in terms of acting it is probably Odom, but Miranda is everywhere, he is the biggest name in pop culture at the moment, and I think he wins. But there is another choice besides the two Hamilton guys. If they split the vote, which is not out of the question, then it is Danny Burstein, who has done well in precursors, who wins the Tony.
Best Actress in a Musical
Will Win - Cynthia Erivo "The Color Purple"
Could Win - Laura Benanti "She Loves Me", Phillipa Soo "Hamilton", or Jessie Mueller "Waitress"
Commentary - Benanti and Mueller are Tony-winning favorites in popular shows with lots of nominations. And you cannot discount the power of Hamilton, so look out for Soo in her Broadway debut. But I think it is another Broadway debut that will win the Tony. The Color Purple when it first debuted on Broadway last decade did well with Tony voters, and LaChanze won a Tony for this same role. But in hindsight it was seen as a bloated show that, despite a lot of great elements, did not hold up. But the revival apparently trimmed down the excesses, impeccably cast its characters, and found the real center of this incredible story. Erivo is the center of this, and apparently she knocks it out of the park. I think she wins her first of I'm sure many Tony Awards.