Tuesday, January 6, 2015

The Oscar Narrative: Post PGA Best Picture Predictions

Here are my updated Best Picture predictions:

American Sniper
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything

Other Contenders - Nightcrawler, Into the Woods, Unbroken, Mr. Turner

Commentary - Okay, so now I have no idea where to go with this. Selma missed the cut here, but apparently there was another screener issue. AMPAS and BAFTA have gotten them, so if it does well with the Brits on Wednesday, then I keep it in. If it misses there too, it may just be that this film is not as big of an Academy hit as we thought, which is a true shame because it is an incredible film. American Sniper and Whiplash both got in at PGA, and I think that both will make the cut. Sniper has just hit its stride with these later guilds, and Whiplash will have passionate supporters (The PGA proves it can play across a broad spectrum as well). Nightcrawler is the surprise here, but I am still holding back. If it gets another big one, I will finally go in, I just really don't see the Academy going for such a dark film. But then again, few films have hit the spectrum of guild nominations so far as well as Nightcrawler. I will definitely be rethinking this one over the next couple of days. Boyhood, Birdman, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Theory of Everything, and The Imitation continue to soar, and Gone Girl and Foxcatcher continue to hang on, although I think that one of them could be the film that is left out for Nightcrawler. But both are bigger films, with I think broader appeal, at least compared to Nightcrawler. I really don't know right now, and am floating till I see the ASC, WGA, and BAFTA nods, and then the picture will be a bit clearer. I hope so. The biggest problem here is that that leaves me with eleven films for what I think will be nine slots. The math just seems to lean that way. So who gets left out? I honestly don't know, once again I hope by the end of this week everything will be clearer. What we do know is that Unbroken is falling fast, and I'm not sure it can recover. Into the Woods and Interstellar remain in the conversation as they will probably be big with the craft guilds. And Mr. Turner is a Mike Leigh movie that will be popular with the British contingency. Despite its lack of guild support, it cannot be discounted. So at the end of this rambling paragraph, my overall point here is this: we know nothing yet, and the mystery will not be solved till the nominees are announced. As always, we'll have to wait and see...

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