Best Drama Series
Will Win - House of Cards
Should Win - The Good Wife
Could Win - Honestly any of them
Commentary - This is a particularly tough category this year, with an argument to be made for really any of the five. Downton Abbey and Game of Thrones are veterans, which normally don't do well here, but they are huge hits, and both had decent seasons. The Good Wife should win here for its reinvigorated season, and The Affair is the hot new show on the block, and we know that the HFPA loves its new shows. But I think House of Cards wins here. It probably would have won last year if it wasn't for Breaking Bad's final season, and it is still a young and fresh show that is beloved by critics and fans, and honestly, The Affair is not that strong. I think it makes up for last year with a win.
Best Comedy Series
Will Win - Transparent
Should Win - Girls or Transparent
Could Win - Orange is the New Black
Commentary - Last year Orange is the New Black tried its luck at Drama and kind of crashed and burned with the HFPA. Now that it is in Comedy, and got the big nomination, a lot of people think it will win. Like House of Cards, it had an obstacle in its way the first time around. This is definitely plausible, and would continue their streak of being incredibly more hip than the Emmys. But I think there is a new shiny toy on the block in the form of Transparent, and that it is more hip and more current than Orange is the New Black at this point, and is getting raves from critics. I think that HFPA voters are going to eat it up.
Best TV Movie/Limited Series
Will Win - Fargo
Should Win - Fargo or Olive Kitteridge
Could Win - True Detective, Olive Kitteridge, or The Normal Heart
Commentary - A four-way race with some big time contenders makes this an exciting category to watch. True Detective has the star power, but has been under a lot of heat in the months since it premiered, mostly for its soft landing. Olive Kitteridge is the shiny new toy that also has a lot of star power, and honestly I think is a lot stronger than people are giving it credit for, especially since Frances McDormand is easily the front runner in her category, as well as Bill Murray. But I actually think that Fargo wins again. It, unlike True Detective, did not land soft, and it has the star power as well. The dark horse here is The Normal Heart. It did not do that well with Emmy voters (yes I know it won the top prize, but really not much else). But it has a lot of heart, and maybe Globe voters are willing to give it the praise it didn't get from the Television Academy.
Best Actor in a Drama Series
Will Win - Clive Owen "The Knick"
Should Win - James Spader "The Blacklist"
Could Win - Kevin Spacey "House of Cards" or Dominic West "The Affair"
Commentary - I love the Spader nod, but that is not happening, and if The Affair is a bit hit with voters, then Dominic West could be brought along for the ride. But I think this is race between two guys. Kevin Spacey is the obvious choice because House of Cards is such a top contender in Drama Series, and of course he is a genuine star (I will say it a hundred times, HFPA voters love their stars). But there is a new contender here in Clive Owen, and I think he sneaks in and takes the prize. The Knick may have missed out on a Drama Series nod, but his performance is great. Plus he won here for Closer, was even nominated for Hemingway and Gelhorn, and I think he is well-liked among this group. I of course could be way off the map here, but I really do think that he is going to upset.
Best Actress in a Drama Series
Will Win/Should Win - Viola Davis "How to Get Away With Murder"
Could Win - Ruth Wilson "The Affair"
Commentary - Globes voters have two newcomers to pick from this year, and it honestly depends on how they want to go. The Affair is nominated for the top award, and if they really love the show, then she could swept up in the process. But I honestly would be shocked if they didn't go for Viola Davis. She is four hundred kinds of awesome in How to Get Away With Murder, the hottest new show on television, and she also happens to be a movie star. I think she finally wins a Golden Globe.
Best Actor in a Comedy Series
Will Win/Should Win - Jeffrey Tambor "Transparent"
Could Win - Ricky Gervais "Derek"
Commentary - Gervais is a former host, and would make for an entertaining winner. But are they really going to look past Jeffrey Tambor for his vibrant, essential, and incredible role in Transparent? I highly doubt it.
Best Actress in a Comedy Series
Will Win/Should Win - Gina Rodriguez "Jane the Virgin"
Could Win - Taylor Schilling "Orange is the New Black" or Julia Louis-Dreyfus "Veep"
Commentary - The HFPA has a prime opportunity here that I don't think they are going to waste. Dreyfus is an easy pick, and a great one as always. Taylor Schilling could be the benefactor of Orange is the New Black love, although she was the one part of the show that was nominated last year, and they skipped over her. Gina Rodriguez is engaging, funny, and a star in the making on Jane the Virgin, a hot new show that voters clearly love. They have the opportunity to reward her right of the back, and be the first major group to do so, before she hits it big, which given her talent is a real possibility. I think they go for it.
Best Actor in a TV Movie/Limited Series
Will Win/Should Win - Matthew McConaughey "True Detective"
Could Win - Any of the other four.
Commentary - So whether voters go with True Detective or something else in the program category, I think McConaughey is a shoo-in. He was the best part of the show, he is a gigantic star fresh off an Oscar win, and who doesn't love a good wacky McConaughey speech?
Best Actress in a TV Movie/Limited Series
Will Win - Frances McDormand "Olive Kitteridge"
Could Win - Once again, any of the other four.
Should Win - McDormand or Allison Tolman "Fargo"
Commentary - I was so glad to see Allison Tolman get the promotion to lead that she do richly deserved, as she was the heart and soul of Fargo. She is a great young talent that would be an excellent choice for Globe voters. Jessica Lange and Frances O'Connor are great veterans in meaty roles. Maggie Gyllenhaal is an interesting nod here, and is probably in a solid second place for The Honorable Woman. But Frances McDormand is one of the most respected actors working today, is a dynamic lead in a the hot new show, and is a movie star. That is a perfect combination for Globe voters.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win - Bill Murray "Olive Kitteridge"
Could Win - Matt Bomer "The Normal Heart"
Should Win - Alan Cumming "The Good Wife"
Commentary - I love love love the Alan Cumming nomination, but I am not crazy enough to think that that is going to happen. I kind of hope that Matt Bomer wins here. He was so good in The Normal Heart, and deserves some recognition for it. But I think that Globe voters are not going to pass up another opportunity to honor Bill Murray. He won't win against Michael Keaton in the film category, so this will probably be his consolation prize.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win - Uzo Aduba "Orange is the New Black"
Should Win - Allison Janney "Mom"
Could Win - Allison Janney "Mom" or Kathy Bates "American Horror Story: Coven"
Commentary - Allison Janney has never won a Golden Globe. She has five nominations under her belt, but no wins. This makes me concerned. I don't understand it because she is fantastic. But I think she sits out again, despite another two Emmy wins last year. Uzo Aduba is the hot new star, fresh off the Emmy win, and I don't think Orange is the New Black walks away empty handed.