Best Picture - Drama
Will Win - Boyhood
Could Win/Should Win - Selma
Commentary - Selma has been faltering lately with the guilds, and a win here would be a huge boost going into the final lap. But I don't think there is anything at this point that can stop the Boyhood train, at least not with the critical groups. The guilds could be a different story, but for now, Boyhood is on an unstoppable train.
Best Picture - Comedy/Musical
Will Win/Should Win - Birdman
Could Win - Into the Woods or The Grand Budapest Hotel
Commentary - A great group this year, which is something usually not said about this category, and a nice race is brewing for the win. Birdman is the front runner, The Grand Budapest Hotel is hitting its awards stride at just the right time, and Into the Woods is a successful movie musical, which we know Globe voters eat up. I still think Birdman wins, but don't be surprised if one of those other two titles is announced instead.
Best Actor - Drama
Will Win - Eddie Redmayne "The Theory of Everything"
Could Win - Any of the other four
Should Win - David Oyelowo "Selma"
Commentary - This is another one of those categories that is so tough that there is an argument literally for all five of them. I don't really see Steve Carell winning, but he is a popular guy. If Selma gets its momentum, Oyelowo could be brought along for the ride. None of us should doubt the surprising power of Nightcrawler, and Jake Gyllenhaal is a big star, which the Globes love. And Benedict Cumberbatch has upset for a big win recently, and The Imitation Game is a bigger contender overall than The Theory of Everything. But here is how I see this race going. Redmayne and Keaton split the Globes, Keaton takes the SAG, and Redmayne takes the BAFTA, and it is a two-horse race that no one has any certainty of going into the Oscars.
Best Actor - Comedy/Musical
Will Win/Should Win - Michael Keaton "Birdman"
Could Win - Ralph Fiennes "The Grand Budapest Hotel'
Commentary - For reasons on Keaton, see above. If anyone can beat him I think it is Ralph Fiennes. He just got a BAFTA nod, and the film is on a role.
Best Actress - Drama
Will Win/Should Win - Julianne Moore "Still Alice"
Could Win - Jennifer Aniston "Cake"
Commentary - If Aniston does get that fifth slot for Best Actress at the Oscars, the nomination will be her reward. I think Moore's due status will overpower all of her competition. But at the Globes, she could easily upset. She is a huge star, has won here before, and has both television and film credits. All of that being said, I still think Moore is the front runner.
Best Actress - Comedy/Musical
Will Win - Amy Adams "Big Eyes"
Should Win - Julianne Moore "Maps to the Stars"
Could Win - Julianne Moore "Maps to the Stars" or Emily Blunt "Into the Woods"
Commentary - Why they couldn't fill that fifth slot that went to Wallis, with Kristen Wiig, Jenny Slate, or Melissa McCarthy is beyond me, but I digress. Of the bunch, Moore is far above her competition in terms of the actual performance, and could easily win two tonight. And Emily Blunt has won a surprise Golden Globe in the past, and is the well-liked lead of the big musical. But after Amy Adams BAFTA nomination, and knowing how Harvey works HFPA voters, I think she wins back to back in this category for Big Eyes. And if she pulls it off, she could bump Aniston for that fifth nod on Thursday morning.
Will Win - Richard Linklater "Boyhood"
Should Win - Ava DuVernay "Selma"
Could Win - Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu "Birdman"
Commentary - This will be an interesting race. Boyhood and Birdman lead their categories, and so naturally this award has come down to either Linklater or Inarritu. I will probably regret not picking Inarritu here, but I feel like Linklater is the front runner for the Oscar, and I feel his momentum building.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win/Should Win - J.K. Simmons "Whiplash"
Could Win - Edward Norton "Birdman"
Commentary - Simmons starts his march to Oscar here at the Globes. If someone was going to upset that path, this is their chance to change the game. But I don't see that happening at this point.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win - Patricia Arquette "Boyhood"
Should Win- Arquette or Jessica Chastain "A Most Violent Year"
Could Win - Meryl Streep "Into the Woods" or Emma Stone "Birdman"
Commentary - Street is Streep, and Stone is a hot commodity in film and on Broadway right now, but I still think Arquette takes it. Basically ditto what I said about J.K. Simmons.
Will Win/Should Win - Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Nicolas Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, and Armando Bo "Birdman"
Could Win - Wes Anderson "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Commentary - I really think that The Grand Budapest Hotel is going to steal something big tonight, and this is the place for it to do it. Birdman is the front runner, and probably going to win pretty easily. But if voters are looking for a place to reward Hotel, this could be the place.
Best Animated Feature
Will Win - The LEGO Movie
Should Win - How to Train Your Dragon 2
Could Win - Big Hero 6 or How to Train Your Dragon 2
Commentary - Once again, another front runner that should easily win here, but if it is going to be upset in this second part of the race, this is a prime moment for one of its competitors to step up and show some muscle. Honestly, watch out for Big Hero 6.
Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win - Ida
Should Win - Ida
Could Win - Force Majeure or Leviathan
Commentary - I kind of feel like this year's Foreign Language category, across all of the awards has been and will continue to be between Ida, Force Majeure, and Leviathan. Of this bunch, Ida has won the most in terms of precursor prizes, and seems to be the critical favorite, although as the more localized critics groups announced, you saw a lot of late love for Force Majeure. This will be an interesting one to watch.
Best Original Score
Will Win - Alexandre Desplat "The Imitation Game"
Could Win - Once again, any of the other four.
Should Win - Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross "Gone Girl"
Commentary - This is a category that is always hard to predict, but Desplat had a great year, and I think that those that loved all of his scores will rally behind him, although there really is an argument for all of these films. After All is Lost won last year, anything is possible.
Best Original Song
Will Win/Should Win - Glory from Selma
Could Win - Yellow Flicker Beat from The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 or Big Eyes from Big Eyes. Commentary - So which big music star takes it this year. Remember, last year U2 won over Let it Go. Lana Del Rey and Lorde have songs here, and each could easily win. But Glory from Selma seems like a better bet. It is a way to honor the film, especially if it can't win anywhere else, and it has two big names attached to it in the form of John Legend and Common.