Saturday, January 11, 2014

The Oscar Narrative: 2014 Golden Globe Film Predictions

Best Picture - Drama
Will Win/Should Win - Gravity
Could Win - 12 Years a Slave or Philomena
Commentary - 12 Years may be the Oscar frontrunner, but the Globes love big, bold movies and blockbusters like Avatar. They go with smaller films if they have a foreign flair (like Babel). I think Gravity will prevail, and watch out for Philomena. It was beloved by the HFPA, and will probably steal an award away from a frontrunner. I am not bold enough to predict it in any of its nominated categories, but I'll be on the lookout for it come tomorrow night.

Best Picture - Comedy/Musical
Will Win/Should Win - American Hustle
Could Win - The Wolf of Wall Street or Nebraska
Commentary - Wolf has its lovers and Nebraska has been a stealth contender all year. But everyone seems to be doing the Hustle as of late, and there is no big musical (Les Mis) to stop David O. Russell this time around.

Best Actor  - Drama
Will Win/Should Win - Matthew McConaughey "Dallas Buyers Club"
Could Win - Chiwetel Ejiofor "12 Years a Slave" or Tom Hanks "Captain Phillips"
Commentary - Ejiofor could get a big boost here, as he has been dominating the critical circuit. But McConaughey has been working it with the HFPA, and is just the movie star type that could inspire a nice win under his belt. And don't ever discount Tom Hanks, because well, he's Tom Hanks.

Best Actress - Drama
Will Win - Cate Blanchett "Blue Jasmine"
Could Win - Sandra Bullock "Gravity" or Judi Dench "Philomena"
Should Win - Bullock
Commentary - I am this close to putting either Bullock or Dench in an upset, but for now I will stick with the obvious choice of Cate Blanchett. It's a way to honor the new Woody Allen movie as they give him (well Diane Keaton) the Cecile B. DeMille Award, and to honor a great performance from an actress that has been everywhere this season.

Best Actor - Comedy/Musical
Will Win - Leonardo Dicaprio "The Wolf of Wall Street"
Could Win - Bruce Dern "Nebraska" or Christian Bale "American Hustle"
Should Win - Dern
Commentary - Bruce Dern was fantastic in Nebraska, and I would be thrilled if he won here. But I think he has a better shot at SAG, as this category has two megastars in the category who have the glitz and glam factor the HFPA likes. Bale could ride a Hustle sweep, but Dicaprio's over the top, gutsy performance seems like a more obvious choice.

Best Actress - Comedy/Musical
Will Win - Amy Adams "American Hustle"
Could Win - Meryl Streep "August: Osage County"
Should Win - Louis-Dreyfus or Adams
Commentary - Meryl is usually unstoppable at the Globes, unless the film she is in is less than stellar, or she is facing big competition. I think that the tide is turning for Amy Adams, who could land an Oscar nod Thursday.  

Best Director
Will Win/Should Win - Alfonso Cuaron "Gravity"
Could Win - Steve McQueen "12 Years a Slave" or David O. Russell "American Hustle"
Commentary - Even if something else pulls off the Drama Best Picture, I think Cuaron is a lock here. But this is the first test of the director slot, which I think is very important this year. If McQueen or Russell upset here, it could be a sign of things to come at BFCA and most importantly, the DGA.

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win/Should Win - Jared Leto "Dallas Buyers Club"
Could Win - Bradley Cooper "American Hustle" or Daniel Bruhl "Rush"
Commentary - This category is weird for me, and now that Leto missed at BAFTA, I think that the race could change at any moment. This could be the first sign of something different, but for now I will stick with Leto.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win - Jennifer Lawrence "American Hustle"
Could Win - Lupita Nyong'o "12 Years a Slave" or Julia Roberts "August: Osage County"
Should Win - Nyong'o
Commentary - Nyong'o is probably a good bet for the Oscar (or Oprah, don't discount her!). But Lawrence is hot on their heels, and she will probably take the Globe. She is the biggest star in the world right now, and she is blazing hot in American Hustle. I think the one to really watch out for in terms of an upset is not necessarily Nyong'o, but Roberts, who is a favorite of the HFPA, and is the best part of August: Osage County.

Best Screenplay
Will Win - Eric Singer and American Hustle "American Hustle"
Could Win - Jeff Pope and Steve Coogan "Philomena" or John Ridley "12 Years a Slave" or Bob Nelson "Nebraska"
Should Win - Bob Nelson "Nebraska"
Commentary - Philomena is going to upset (I keep saying this), and this could be the place. But I feel like they are going to reward Russell somewhere and if Cuaron has Best Director locked up, then this would be the logical place.

Best Animated Feature
Will Win/Should Win - Frozen
Could Win - The Croods
Commentary - With its biggest Oscar rivals, Monsters University and The Wind Rises either not nominated or nominated in a different category, I don't see anything stopping Disney from taking this one away with Frozen.

Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win - The Great Beauty
Should Win - The Hunt
Could Win - The Hunt, The Past, or Blue is the Warmest Color
Commentary - I thought Blue is the Warmest Color had this one locked up, but rumblings around Hollywood (These HFPA members cannot keep their mouth shut), suggest that there may be something more suited for them in The Great Beauty. It could win here and start its run for the Oscar like Denmark's submission In a Better World did several years ago.

Best Original Score
Will Win/Should Win - Steve Price "Gravity"
Could Win - Hans Zimmer "12 Years a Slave" or John Williams "The Book Thief"
Commentary - They could throw a bone here to 12 Years a Slave and to its popular composer Hans Zimmer, just like they could go with a safe choice aka John Williams (who doesn't love John Williams?). But I think that if they are going to go big for Gravity, they will bring this award along with it (since Actress seems tied up at the moment).

Best Original Song
Will Win - Ordinary Love from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Could Win - Really the other four
Should Win - Let it Go from Frozen
Commentary - Let it Go from Frozen is probably the best of the bunch, and most likely the frontrunner for the Oscar, and could win here, but unlike the other songs, there isn't the star power behind it. Altas has Coldplay and Sweeter Than Fiction has Taylor Swift, both of which should be watched out for. And Please Mr. Kennedy would kill about six stones with one shot including T. Bone Burnett, The Coens, and Justin Timberlake. But I think they are going to go for U2, which seems like a noble choice. Just a hunch I guess.

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