Friday, January 17, 2014

The Oscar Narrative: SAG Predictions

Best Ensemble
Will Win/Should Win - American Hustle
Could Win - 12 Years a Slave
Commentary - Here's how I call this race. If Hustle wins, then the race remains a tight one. If 12 Years pulls off a victory here, then it is probably heading for Oscar victory, the only thing stopping it is the DGA. I will say it over and over again, until it gets extremely old. But Cuaron will probably win the DGA, which usually matches up with Best Picture. Then its between Gravity and 12 Years. We will know in about 24 hours how this race will turn out.

Best Actor
Will Win/Should Win - Matthew McConaughey "Dallas Buyers Club"
Could Win - Chiwetel Ejiofor "12 Years a Slave" or Bruce Dern "Nebraska"
Commentary - Can I just say, I love Jessica Chastain, who last night christened one of this season's narratives, with the "Alright, Alright, Alright!". I think that Matthew McConaughey is going to lock step to the Oscar, starting right here with SAG. Now a wrench was thrown without the BAFTA nod, but AMPAS loved Dallas Buyers Club, earning six total nominations, and I think he will continue his journey tomorrow night. The one to really watch out for is Dern. He is beloved in this industry, he has been campaigning like a champ, and the actors may want to reward the hard-working veteran.

Best Actress
Will Win - Cate Blanchett "Blue Jasmine"
Could Win/Should Win - Sandra Bullock "Gravity"
Commentary - Amy Adams is not a factor here, but I guarantee you she will be at BAFTA, and the Oscars. For now though, Cate Blanchett will continue to enjoy her winning streak, as I don't see Bullock pulling off an upset.

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win - Jared Leto "Dallas Buyers Club"
Should Win - James Gandolfini "Enough Said"
Could Win - Michael Fassbender "12 Years a Slave"
Commentary - I would love to see Gandolfini get one last, deserved, honor for a great role. But alas, it looks like Jared Leto is going to ride the Dallas Buyers Club love all the way to the Oscar stage. And SAG will give him one more time to show off his acceptance speech.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win/Should Win - Lupita Nyong'o "12 Years a Slave"
Could Win - Jennifer Lawrence "American Hustle"
Commentary - I just don't see Lawrence winning two years in a row, and I don't see 12 Years going away empty handed. Watch out them for Lupita. The other one is Oprah. She may have been snubbed at Oscar, but I wouldn't put it past the SAG members to give her a consolation prize.


Best Drama Cast 
Will Win/Should Win - Breaking Bad
Could Win - Downton Abbey
Commentary - Downton surprised a lot of people last year, and couple do it again, but like the Globes, I don't think SAG can let Breaking Bad go without one last hurrah.

Best Comedy Cast
Will Win/Should Win - The Big Bang Theory
Could Win - Veep, Modern Family, or 30 Rock
Commentary - I have no idea what is going to happen here. Modern Family is always a safe bet, Veep had a great Season 2, and 30 Rock could get one last hug. But I am going to go with Big Bang, which only continues to get bigger and more exposure, and it is sure to win one of these things someday. Why not tomorrow?

Best Actor in a Drama Series
Will Win/Should Win - Bryan Cranston "Breaking Bad"
Could Win - Kevin Spacey "House of Cards" or Jeff Daniels "The Newsroom"
Commentary - Spacey is a star, and Daniels breathes fire on The Newsroom, but Cranston is clearly the front-runner for the prize.

Best Actress in a Drama Series
Will Win/Should Win - Kerry Washington "Scandal"
Could Win - Anna Gunn "Breaking Bad"
Commentary - I keep predicting Kerry Washington to win one of these things, and I hope eventually that she actually does. But watch out for Gunn in a Breaking Bad sweep.

Best Actor in a Comedy Series
Will Win - Alec Baldwin "30 Rock"
Could Win/Should Win - Jim Parsons "The Big Bang Theory"
Commentary - I don't think even homophobic comments can keep Baldwin from winning one last time. He has never lost, literally never. It is hard to bet against that kind of record.

Best Actress in a Comedy Series
Will Win/Should Win - Julia Louis-Dreyfus "Veep"
Could Win - Tina Fey "30 Rock"
Commentary - Fey pulled it out last year, so she is a real threat, but I think that now two-time Emmy winner (for this role, four overall), Louis-Dreyfus will take the prize.

Best Actor in a TV Movie/Mini
Will Win/Should - Michael Douglas "Behind the Candelabra"
Could Win -  Matt Damon "Behind the Candelabra"
Commentary - Douglas makes it 3/3 on the circuit.

Best Actress in a TV Movie/Mini
Will Win/Should Win - Elisabeth Moss "Top of the Lake"
Could Win - Helena Bonham Carter "Burton and Taylor" or Helen Mirren "Phil Spector"
Commentary - She couldn't beat the power of Laura Linney at the Emmys, but neither Lange nor Linney are here to stop Moss from following up here Globes win with a SAG statue. 

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