Post Telluride/Venice/Toronto Nomination Predictions
American Fiction
Barbie
The Color Purple
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Other Contenders - May December, The Iron Claw, Napoleon, Origin, Ferrari, Priscilla, Anatomy of a Fall, Air, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Saltburn, The Taste of Things, All of Us Strangers, Are You There God? It's Me Margaret, Rustin, The Bikeriders, Freud's Last Session, Fair Play, The Burial, Nyad, Asteroid City, The Killer, The Boys in the Boat
Commentary - So I feel like we are consolidating around seven contenders that have consistently retained their buzz, and will probably be our Oscar nomination leaders. Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, American Fiction and Maestro continue to be safe for now. The last three slots keep moving around. I am going to keep The Zone of Interest after it did really well at the European Film Awards. The growing international audience will help its chances. Past Lives has snuck back in, and I hope that the critics groups keep its chances alive. Finally, after this week we will know whether The Color Purple is worth the hype. Until then, I will leave it in. May December is still strong, but something tells me it is not as big as folks claim it will be with voters (I could easily be wrong). The Iron Claw has gotten some nice early notices, so it is up top. Napoleon screens this week. I feel like it is either going to be great, or a disaster. Origin I had for awhile, it needs precursors to stay alive. Priscilla, Air, Saltburn, Anatomy of a Fall, The Taste of Things, All Us Strangers, Ustin, and The Bikeriders could do well if precursors come to their aid. Finally watch out for Freud's Last Session, Are You There God?, The Killer, Asteroid City, Fair Play, The Burial, Nyad, and the last big question mark for the season, The Boys in the Boat.
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