Monday, October 3, 2022

The Oscar Narrative: Post Venice/Toronto/Telluride Nomination Predictions - Best Supporting Actress

Post Venice/Toronto/Telluride Nomination Predictions
Jessie Buckley "Women Talking"
Claire Foy "Women Talking"
Stephanie Hsu "Everybody Everywhere All At Once"
Janelle Monae "Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery"
Jean Smart "Babylon"

Other Contenders - Hong Chau "The Whale", Sadie Sink "The Whale", Jamie Lee Curtis "Everything Everywhere All at Once", Nina Hoss "TAR", Laura Dern "The Son", Zoe Kazaon "She Said", Jennifer Ehle "She Said", Jennifer Ehle "She Said", Patricia Clarkson "She Said", Kerry Condon "The Banshees of Inisherin", Angela Bassett "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever", Thuso Mbedu "The Woman King", Lashana Lynch "The Woman King", Judith Ivey "Women Talking", Sheila McCarthy "Women Talking", Frances McDormand "Women Talking", Dolly De Leon "Triangle of Sadness", Kate Winslet "Avatar: The Way of Water", Signourey Weaver "Avatar: The Way of Water", Lupita Nyong'o "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever", Letitia Wright "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever", Danai Gurira "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever", Anne Hathaway "Armageddon Time", Whoopi Goldberg "Till", Vanessa Kirby "The Son", Keke Palmer "Nope", Julia Butters "The Fabelmans"

Commentary - Michelle Williams moving to lead might be brilliant or a mistake, because I had her winning this supporting Oscar. But this leaves a wide-open race with a lot of fantastic contenders. Women Talking has an incredible cast, but right now it looks like Claire Foy and Jessie Buckley are rising to the top of list. Can both make it in? We will have to see, but both are awards magnets with great reviews in a top Best Picture contender. Everything Everywhere All at Once still makes me hesitant, but if voters embrace it, then watch out for Stephanie Hsu and Jamie Lee Curtis. Right now I have Hsu in, but I am already starting to see the buzz for Jamie Lee Curtis rise, a legend who has yet to earn an Oscar nomination. Babylon looks crazy, but it could be a chance for awards magnet Jean Smart breaking into the Oscar race. Finally,  I moved in Janelle Monae. Glass Onion has a chance to do even better than Knives Out, and all of the reviews talk about Monae's amazing performance. Beyond those five though, you have Jamie Lee Curtis (as previously mentioned), Chau and Sink from The Whale, Nina Hoss who is climbing the odds for TAR, the She Said women, The Women King, Women Walking, Black Panther, and Avatar casts and Kerry Condon's talked about work in The Banshees of Inisherin. Recent nominees and winners like Anne Hathaway, Whoopi Goldberg (okay not recent, but you get the point), Vanessa Kirby, and Laura Dern should not be discounted, neither should Dolly De Leon, Keke Palmer, and Julia Butters. 

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