Post Venice/Toronto/Telluride Nomination Predictions
Austin Butler "Elvis"
Diego Calva "Babylon"
Colin Farrell "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Brendan Fraser "The Whale"
Bill Nighy "Living"
Other Contenders - Hugh Jackman "The Son", Will Smith "Emancipation", Jeremy Pope "The Inspection" Daniel Craig "Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery", Daniel Gimenez Cacho "Bardo", Park Hae-il "Decision to Leave", Michael Ward "Empire of Light", Song Kang-ho "Broker", Paul Mescal "Aftersun", Tom Hanks "A Man Called Otto", Tom Cruise "Top Gun: Maverick", Jonathan Majors "Devotion", Gabriel LaBelle "The Fabelmans", Harris Dickinson "Triangle of Sadness", Adam Driver "White Noise", Jim Parsons "Spoiler Alert", Daniel Kaluuya "Nope", Caleb Landry Jones "Nitram", Billy Eichner "Bros"
Commentary - After the super competitive Best Actress race, this one feels like an afterthought, as it is incredibly weak in comparison. The top three contenders for the prize, at this point, are all first time potentials. Brendan Fraser will probably overcome his fat suit controversy with his rave reviews and his press tour that is awe-inspiring. Austin Butler played Elvis well in a so-so movie, but he has the performance and the real-life inspiration to make the cut. Colin Farrell could be a sleeper. He has be flirting with Oscar recognition for years, and his film is a top contender across the board. The other two slots are incredibly fluid. I stuck with Bill Nighy. A veteran with a great role that could breakthrough, and Diego Calva in a potentially breakout role in the new Damien Chazelle film Babylon. Hugh Jackman could overcome mixed reviews for The Son, but the film is slipping. Will Smith probably would have been a contender, but will voters forgive so soon? Jeremy Pope is rising, Daniel Craig is overdue, and Michael Ward could benefit if Empire if Light gets a second chance (I think it could with industry voters). International contenders like Cacho, Hae-il and Kang-ho could benefit from a weaker race. Previous nominees like Adam Driver, Tom Hanks, Tom Cruise and Daniel Kaluuya could return. Finally, first time potentials like Parsons, LaBelle, Dickinson, Jones, Eichner, and Mescal are hoping to make their break into this race.
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