Post Venice/Toronto/Telluride Nomination Predictions
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
TAR
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
Women Talking
Other Contenders - Decision to Leave, The Woman King, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Living, Triangle of Sadness, Emancipation, Elvis, Empire of Light, The Inspection, She Said, Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths), Bones and All, Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio, Till, All Quiet on the Western Front, Aftersun, Armageddon Time, The Son, White Noise, A Man Called Otto, The Northman, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Nope, The Batman, I Wanna Dance With Somebody, Causeway, Spoiler Alert
Commentary - These are my last predictions until the critics awards start coming in, and they will help us shape where this race is heading. We know The Fabelmans, TAR, Women Talking, and The Banshees of Inisherin are strong out of the festivals, and there is no reason to believe that they will not continue to dominate. We have not seen Babylon, but early test screenings compared it to The Wolf of Wall Street, which is good news. I am keeping The Whale in for now, but it feels like it buzz is fading. The big guns like Black Panther (first reactions are raves), Avatar (I won't bet against James Cameron unless reviews say otherwise), Top Gun (can it keep holding on?) are still in the game, and honestly, the Oscars need them to stay strong. Finally, despite all odds, Everything Everywhere All at Once continues to be a huge player, and I think the critics will definitely solidify its status. Beyond those ten, there is Decision to Leave (it can win the directors over, but it needs more support to crack the top ten), The Woman King and Glass Onion (both bigger projects with great reviews), Triangle of Sadness (apparently has a lot of support), and Bardo (if it can overcome bad reviews). Empire of Light could rebound, Emancipation could be a late game-changer, Elvis is popular, The Inspection is gaining buzz, as is Till. Watch out for Pinocchio, Bone and Al, Armageddon Time, Aftersun, Nope, I Wanna Dance With Somebody, She Said, All Quiet on the Western Front, and Bones and All as well.
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