Post Venice/Toronto/Telluride Nomination Predictions
Cate Blanchett "TAR"
Viola Davis "The Woman King"
Margot Robbie "Babylon"
Michelle Williams "The Fabelmans"
Michelle Yeoh "Everything Everywhere All At Once"
Other Contenders - Danielle Deadwyler "Till", Olivia Colman "Empire of Light", Naomi Ackie "I Wanna Dance With Somebody", Jessica Chastain "The Good Nurse", Jennifer Lawrence "Causeway", Emma Thompson "Good Luck to You, Leo Grande", Taylor Russell "Bones and All", Ana De Armas "Blonde", Tang Wei "Decision to Leave", Zar Amir Ebrahimi "Holy Spider", Carey Mulligan "She Said"
Commentary - This race is super competitive, and there could be a fierce battle to the final five. Cate Blanchett is probably in the lead for her third Oscar for TAR. But, I think that Michelle Williams joining this race instead of supporting has upended expectations. She has never won an Oscar, is in the Best Picture frontrunner, and may have the better narrative this season. In the last three slots, I am keeping Margot Robbie, whose role looks like scenery-chewing, Viola Davis, who is now an Oscar favorite and is fierce in The Woman King, and Michelle Yeoh, who could also have an interesting narrative this year, and could win. In the sixth slot, and I am thinking about making room for her, is Danielle Deadwyler, who is receiving raves for her performance in Till. The film needs to be seen, and the overall impression of the film was less enthusiastic than the notices she received, but the buzz is strong, and the story is powerful. Olivia Colman is still strong, because I think that Empire of Light might be a bigger hit with Oscar voters than with critics. Naomi Ackie looks like she embodies Whitney Houston, Taylor Russell is receiving great nods, Ana de Armas is turning heads, Tang Wei and Zar Amir Ebrahimi could have major breakthroughs, and previous nominees/winners Jessica Chastain, Jennifer Lawrence, Ema Thompson, and Carey Mulligan (might go supporting), are potentials to return.
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