Post Venice/Toronto/Telluride Nomination Predictions
Damien Chazelle "Babylon"
Park Chan-wook "Decision to Leave"
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert "Everything Everywhere All At Once"
Steven Spielberg "The Fabelmans"
Sarah Polley "Women Talking"
Other Contenders - James Cameron "Avatar: The Way of Water", Todd Field "TAR", Martin McDonagh "The Banshees of Inisherin", Ruben Ostlund "Triangle of Sadness", Gina Prince-Blythewood "The Woman King", Ryan Coogler "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever", Darren Aronofsky "The Whale", Alejandro G. Inarritu "Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths", Edward Berger "All Quiet on the Western Front", Rian Johnson "Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery", Joseph Kosinski "Top Gun: Maverick", Maria Schrader "She Said", Sam Mendes "Empire of Light", Luca Guadagnino "Bones and All", Jordan Peele "Nope", Antoine Fuqua "Emancipation", Chinonye Chukwu "Till", Baz Luhrmann "Elvis", Kasi Lemons "I Wanna Dance With Somebody", Noah Baumbach "White Noise"
Commentary - A really tough race, one that will not be sorted out for awhile (maybe until nomination morning). We know that Steven Spielberg (who snuck back in last year at the last minute) will be a formidable contender here, with his highly personal The Fabelmans, which is also the current Best Picture frontrunner. Sarah Polley is looking to extend the winning streak for female directors to three, with her highly praised Women Talking. Babylon has not been seen yet, but the trailer looks to be a visual treat, and you cannot discount Damien Chazelle. The Daniels are still strong, and Everything Everywhere All at Once is a director's movie. Finally, I have moved Park Chan-wook in after his Decision to Leave has premiered to fantastic reviews. Foreign language films have always had a footing in directing, and recently that trend has picked up. There are a lot of potentials this year, but Chan-wook feels like his film may end up being the strongest. Those other potentials like Ruben Ostlund (for an English film), Inarritu (Bardo is a mixed bag), and Edward Berger (I think a bigger contender than previously thought). James Cameron is still lurking, and we are all dumb to sleep on one of his projects. Todd Field and Martin McDonagh are in a lot of folks top five, but neither have ever been nominated for director. Is this the year? Genuine action films from the likes of Gina Prince-Blythewood, Ryan Coogler, and Joseph Kosiniski are flashy potentials. I would also watch out for previous Oscar nominees/winners like Peele, Mendes, Aronofsky, Luhrmann, Baumbach, and Johnson, as well as Lemons, Schrader, and Chukwu.
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