Post Venice/Toronto/Telluride Nomination Predictions
Damien Chazelle "Babylon"
Martin McDonagh "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert "Everything Everywhere All at Once"
Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg "The Fabelmans"
Todd Field "TAR"
Other Contenders - Sam Mendes "Empire of Light", James Gray "Armageddon Time", Keith Beauchamp, Chinonye Chukwu, Michael Reilly "Till", Maria Bello and Dana Stevens "The Woman King", Nicolás Giacobone and Alejandro González Iñárritu "Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)", Elegance Bratton "The Inspection", Ruben Östlund "Triangle of Sadness", Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell, and Craig Pearce "Elvis", Domee Shi, Julia Cho, and Sarah Streicher "Turning Red", Billy Eichner and Nicholas Stoller "Bros", Anthony McCarten "I Wanna Dance With Somebody", Hirokazu Koreeda "Broker", Katy Brand "Good Luck to You, Leo Grande", Jordan Peele "Nope", Clay McLeod Chapman, Jordan Peele, and Henry Selick "Wendell & Wild"
Commentary - I am still not completely sold on Academy members embracing Everything Everywhere All at Once, but its buzz remains strong, and smart campaign could defy the odds. So I am now adding it to major categories, including this one. Damien Chazelle returns with Babylon, which could be brilliant or terrible based on its first look. Martin McDonagh is sure to return to this race after The Banshees of Inisherin landed so well on the festival circuit. The Fabelmans, right now, is probably the leading Best Picture contender after its Toronto success, expect Tony Kushner to return, and maybe, finally, win an Oscar. Finally, TAR, Todd Field's latest, has also done extremely well on the circuit so far, and he has been nominated twice for screenplay Oscars. Empire of Light might not end the season as a critical favorite, but don't discount it. Audiences are apparently going to love it, and it is a tribute to film. Other indies like Till, The Inspection, Triangle of Sadness, Broker, Good Luck to You Leo Grande, and Armageddon Time are in the mix. Bardo has had a lot of supporters, and a lot of detractors. Passion may still get it some love. Jordan Peele has two contenders, and watch out for bigger films like The Woman King, Turning Red, Bros, and biopics Elvis and I Wanna Dance With Somebody.
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