The Oscar Narrative: Post Venice/Toronto/Telluride Nomination Predictions - Best Adapted Screenplay

Post Venice/Toronto/Telluride Nomination Predictions

Rian Johnson "Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery"

Kazuo Ishiguro "Living"

Rebecca Lenkiewicz "She Said"

Samuel D. Hunter "The Whale"

Sarah Polley "Women Talking"

Other Contenders - Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller "The Son", Noah Baumbach "White Noise",  Peter Craig, Justin Marks, Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, and Christopher McQuarrie "Top Gun: Maverick", David Kajganich "Bones and All", Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert Cole "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever", David Magee "A Man Called Otto", Guillermo del Toro, Matthew Robbins, Gris Grimly, and Patrick Hale "Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio", Lena Dunham "Catherine Called Birdy", Alice Birch and Sebastián Lelio "The Wonder", James Cameron Josh Friedman "Avatar: The Way of Water", Lesley Paterson and Ian Stokell "All Quiet On the Western Front", Matt Reeves and Peter Craig "The Batman", Marcia Romano, and Audrey Diwan "Happening", 

Commentary - This race has had some huge contenders that have slightly faltered. Mixed reviews of The Son and White Noise might not hurt some of the actor contenders, but it could definitely affect them here. For my top five, now that those two have slipped. The Whale and Women Talking both came out of the festivals strong, and I think they could be Best Picture contenders. Knives Out got a writing nod, so expect the even better reviewed Glass Onion to be a player in this category (and maybe other categories this time around). She Said has yet to be seen, but it feels like a major contender. Finally, novelist Kazuo Ishiguro could be popular with the writers for Living. There are some huge blockbusters like Avatar 2, Top Gun 2, Pinocchio, and The Batman. Writers have been not so kind to these in the past, but this year, they may not have much choice. They are remaking A Man Called Ove, now called A Man Called Otto, which featured David Magee, a two-time nominee. Bones and All is creative enough, that it could be embraced, The Wonder, All Quiet on the Western Front, Happening, and Catherine Called Birdy are intriguing, and don't discount a White Noise or The Son comeback.