The Oscar Narrative: Final Nomination Predictions - Best Actor and Actress

Best Actor

Will Win - Chadwick Boseman "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

Could Win - Anthony Hopkins "The Father"

Should Win - Chadwick Boseman "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

Commentary - I still think after winning the Globe, Critics Choice, and SAG that Chadwick Boseman is still going to win this Oscar. He deserves to win, not only for his performance, but also as a way to honor the legacy of one of the best. But Anthony Hopkins winning at BAFTA has given me pause. If there is an upset brewing, it is Hopkins, and it could be a tighter race than we thought. 

Best Actress

Will Win - Viola Davis "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

Could Win - Carey Mulligan "Promising Young Woman", Frances McDormand "Nomadland", or Andra Day "The United States vs. Billie Holiday"

Should Win - Davis or Mulligan 

Commentary - I really like all five performances here, and since this race is such a mess, I will be happy no matter whose name is called out. All four major televised precursors split. I personally think McDormand won because BAFTA's jury nomination system left out Davis and Mulligan. But maybe she is just stronger than I think? Mulligan probably would have won BAFTA had she been nominated, but you never know. And while the ADG and ACE Eddie are not indicative of this race, the fact that Promising Young Woman lost both of those races that many felt were slam dunks, shows that it may not be as strong as we think. But neither Andra Day or Viola Davis are in Best Picture contenders compared to Mulligan and McDormand. But Davis, in particular, is an Oscar-winning legend who won at SAG. In this crazy race I do not purport to have the answer. I am sticking with Davis, but I think Mulligan is poised for an upset.