The Oscar Narrative: Final Predictions - Original Score, Original Song, Sound, and the Shorts

Best Original Score

Will Win - Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, and Jon Batiste "Soul"

Could Win - Emile Mosseri "Minari" 

Should Win - Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, and Jon Batiste "Soul"

Commentary - The music categories don't have precursors, but usually this race settles in on a winner. This year, it has been settled for months, as Soul has cruised through almost every major award, and is easily the best of the bunch. I had to go back to the nomination list to see who the other four were, because I could not remember. That's how solid Reznor, Ross, and Batiste are going into next week's ceremony. 

Best Original Song

Will Win - Judas and the Black Messiah - Fight For You

Could Win - One Night in Miami - Speak Now

Should Win - One Night in Miami - Speak Now

Commentary - Unlike Score, this race often has its surprises and upsets. Speak Now was the favorite for a long time, and it's an excellent song. You also have Diane Warren (who has still not won yet), and the Husavik song which is just crazy enough that voters might go for it. But when I saw that song from Judas and the Black Messiah, something just told me it was the one to beat. The film came in strong, it is nominated for Best Picture, unlike One Night in Miami. The song is written by H.E.R. who just won Song of the Year in an upset at the Grammys, and rocked out the Super Bowl. She is on voters' minds (of course so is Leslie Odom Jr., who is a double nominee). This song is also timely, really striking a nerve with all of the protests for justice that have rocked and uplifted this country over the last year. Speak Now is probably the front runner, and I love it, but I am predicting an upset. 

Best Sound 

Will Win - Sound of Metal

Could Win - Soul

Should Win - Soul or Sound of Metal

Commentary - I really hate it for the sound guys that these two crafts got combined into one category. Of course, I also understand that most voters had no idea the difference between those two categories. It's a catch-22. But I digress. Sound of Metal won at the CAS Awards last night and won at BAFTA. It is clearly the front runner, and its sound work was impeccable. But I would watch out for Soul. Musicals and music films did well in the Sound Mixing category in the past, and it won its category at CAS. It could be a spoiler. 

Best Animated Short - If Anything Happens, I Love You

Best Documentary Short - A Concerto is a Conversation

Best Live Action Short - The Letter Room