The Oscar Narrative: Final Predictions - Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win - Emerald Fennell "Promising Young Woman"

Could Win - Aaron Sorkin "The Trial of the Chicago 7" or Lee Isaac Chung "Minari" 

Should Win - Emerald Fennell "Promising Young Woman" 

Commentary - Fennell has won all of the major precursors since Sorkin's Globe win. WGA and BAFTA, plus the most original concept of the bunch and a Best Picture nomination. I think she wins the Oscar as well. But watch out for Sorkin, a favorite, and Lee Isaac Chung. If Minari or The Trial of the Chicago 7 hope to dethrone Nomadland, which means they need screenplay attached, cause they ain't winning Director (Sorkin isn't nominated, so can't), they need to upset here to show some strength in a top category. 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win - Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller "The Father"

Could Win - Chloe Zhao "Nomadland" 

Should Win - Kemp Power "One Night in Miami"

Commentary - In the battle between The Father and Nomadland, The Father pulled ahead when it won the BAFTA. Neither were eligible for WGA, so that is really the only crossover precursor that we have to go with. Nomadland is still the Best Picture front runner, and could easily win. But I think it will be seen by voters as a directorial movie, and Zeller's adaptation will be rewarded for its script. 

Best Animated Feature

Will Win- Soul

Could Win - Wolfwalkers

Should Win - Soul

Commentary - Soul has won everything, is the only nominee with multiple nominations (and could win other categories), is backed by Pixar, and is easily the best of the bunch. I would be jaw-dropped if anything else won this category.

Best Documentary Feature

Will Win - My Octopus Teacher

Could Win - Time or Crip Camp

Should Win - Time

Commentary - Time is my favorite documentary of the year, and I think it should win this award. But My Octopus Teacher is beautifully done, has done well with precursors, and is this year's feel-good documentary that often does well with Oscar voters. I think it wins in race with five great choices.

Best International Feature

Will Win - Another Round (Denmark)

Could Win - Collective (Romania)

Should Win - Another Round (Denmark)

Commentary - I knew Another Round was strong going into the Oscars. Then it got a Best Director nod beat out Minari at BAFTA. This film is really strong, and will walk away with this Oscar.